Weighing Keynes Demand

Posted on March 6, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, Keynes understood part of the truth, but only a small part. The reason I say this is because he gathered all demand under the same umbrella. Which is clearly not the case. Does demand for cocaine contribute to economic well being as much as food, or demand for the goods of production? Obviously not. Which is why I propose aggregate demand should have subcategories, unproductive demand and productive demand, and there should probably be a third, negative demand. Clearly though the aggregate demand aggregate supply equation has some relevance to the economic well being of a nation, it can’t be correct, or it would better model historic recessions. The Great Depression where Keynesian policies were used proved their ineffectiveness. So it needs improvement.

Unproductive demand is the purchase of necessities. Things that sustain life but don’t add to production. It costs us money to buy and keep these things. Necessities are usually the largest line item in aggregate demand. People need to eat, we need clothes and diversion. All of which constitutes a huge portion of any economy. Indeed much of the “productive” demand is to meet unproductive demand. It’s the baseline demand of an economy. Moreover, if supply of food is sufficient but people can’t afford it, there’s a price problem. If demand is insufficient to supply, price will naturally drop until people can afford it. Because pragmatic suppliers won’t let their wares rot, they’ll lower the price until they sell. Unless government gets in the way. If we apply a factor to this demand it would be a 1.

Productive demand would purchase the means of production. You could say productive demand is demand for assets. Things that pay us to own them. If you buy a lathe and don’t use it, it’s unproductive. If you use that lathe to make parts and sell them, that lathe is an asset, or… it produces supply. Productive demand is far smaller than unproductive demand. It grows the economy however. While unproductive demand drives the economy, productive demand expands it. Therefore, the greater the percent of productive to unproductive demand in an economy the greater the rate of expected growth. Economies with no or negative productive demand then are shrinking. Shrinking the ability to meet unproductive demand creates inflation. Productive growth then would have a factor of 2.

Negative demand includes drugs, and government spending that drains resources, by waste, fraud and abuse. These demands lower productive and unproductive demand. Many believe that government can pay for unproductive demand therefor increasing it. But people only eat a few meals a day. So increasing the money available for food only increases the price. As it transfers unproductive and productive demand into negative demand. People use the money freed up by government welfare to spend on drugs, tattoos and piercings. Leading to demand for medical services down the road. Warfare is always and everywhere a bad investment. If used it destroys productive capacity and if not it diminishes money available for other demand. A factor for this would be -1.

If we accept that part of John Maynard Keynes aggregate supply aggregate demand model is correct, but flawed, I think these additions might help. By adding weight to each demand. Productive demand would get doubled, unproductive demand would be multiplied by 1 and negative demand would subtract from aggregate demand. I think by weighting these factors of demand we can gain insight to inflation, growth and recessions, in the past, today and in the future. The Great Depression falsified Keynes theory, yet not my variation of his theme. In the 1930s, government demand replaced productive demand, harming the economy. Else there wouldn’t have been bread lines. Until WWII, when Lend Lease created productive demand to offset negative demand… and regulations were cut.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Raiding The Treasury

Posted on March 5, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, communism, socialism and fascism are simply means for a faction to raid the treasury. Proved pragmatically by history and reason. Criminals who would raid the public treasury aren’t the type to balk at a lie or ten. Moreover, such people epitomize the adage, evil men will burn their nations to the ground to rule over the ashes. The history of all factions that has claimed a socialistic mantle is of despotism, gulags and famine. This supposition can be falsified… if there’s an example of a socialist, fascist or communist economy, that didn’t result in the political elite getting rich, while the rest of the nation became impoverished. Since there isn’t even a single example, even in the Norse nations, the idea hasn’t been falsified. This is important to understand for all of our well beings.

Elites say a lot of things… most of them untrue. Like when a bureaucrat, politician or judge claims he or she serves us. When the exact opposite is the truth. Remember the recent BOIR form small businesses had to fill out, or get a five hundred dollar a day fine? The same bureaucrats that thought such an unconstitutional demand was fine, are livid at being asked to list five things they did last week. The administrative state believes we serve it. The most trustworthy appearing people are usually cons. Because appearing trustworthy is their business. While a regular Joe will have some tells he isn’t. Then there’s the millionaire who stands before us and claims she will harm the rich to benefit us. Which is obviously a lie, because no one harms themselves, especially the self serving.

Pragmatists judge by outcomes. By that standard, the history of the socialistic factions is one of self enrichment, and national impoverishment. An idealist might argue, just because it’s never worked in the past, doesn’t mean the underlying idea is unsound. It’s just that no one has discovered a way to implement it. In other words, communism would work if they were the despot. Which makes idealists easy prey, for those selling the lie, government has a valid role to play in helping people improve their lives. A pragmatist might question the authenticity of the speaker, judging by past outcomes, while the idealist will swallow the bait hook line and sinker. Which doesn’t make the idealist a bad person, simply one who is easily manipulated and captured by ideas. Even evil ones pretending to be good.

The fact is, all the socialistic factions must become irrational oligarchies, then despots. When the pie is large, many people can take from it. Allowing an oligarchy of takers to arise. Since the pie isn’t added to by the actual economy, it gets ever smaller. As we’ve seen in Argentina, the USSR, North Korea and Nazi Germany, while the Nordic nations had to give up even petite socialism. As the pie gets ever smaller, the demand for the scraps becomes ever more aggressive. The government becomes molten with scheming and the dross rises to the top. The most self serving are purified until one remains. The Stalin, Mao or Pol Pot becomes dictator, in the name of the people. Who then lives in opulence while the nation starves to death. Forty five million starved in China under Mao, for example.

That all the socialistic ideologies are means to raid the treasury should be taught to all students as early and often as possible. To prevent cons from gaining power so they can raid the treasury. The reason it isn’t is because the education system is run by the scammers. Which is why Animal Farm isn’t taught anymore. The people who want to raid the treasury are teaching kids to be robots instead of individuals. Facilitating the con. We know liars lie, history is unambiguous and outcomes matter. Teach our kids, get it in the schools and inculcate this idea to our peers. Until everyone knows, socialism, communism and fascism are only means to raid the treasury, it will happen again and again. Make it common knowledge for our sake and that of our kids. Or do you think it could work?

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Limericks

Posted on March 4, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

 

There once was an oligarch from Brussels,

She had a beard chest hair and rippling muscles,

A Globalist at heart,

She played her part,

To help rid the world of Peter Pauls and Russels.

 

Governments that protect the predator

Using little girls to pay their creditor,

Are unjust you see,

Engaging in atrocity,

And in truth are naught but a traitor.

 

No great change has been done without sway,

Doing nothing hands are tied and feet in clay,

Allowing outrage,

You’re in a cage,

Because the sheep can’t vote the wolves away.

 

The Tories and Labour are peas in a pod,

Ruling the masses with an iron rod,

Oligarchs by design,

Will they win this time,

They think so as they claim to be a god.

 

Failure here failure there failure everywhere,

But you have to admit they do have a flair,

Pretend to be an ace,

Then burn down the place,

Is rule by political favor and flaming hair.

 

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Limericks

Posted on March 3, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

 

British Labor protects the rape gangs you see,

As democrats defend pedos from you and me,

Birds of a feather,

Do flock together,

And scumbags that harm children gather politically.

 

The cultural elite are mere political shills,

Pushing elitism with Bernaysian skills,

You can tell by the joke,

What fun they don’t poke,

When dancing around absurdity with bitter pills.

 

It’s hard to get a car to surge ahead,

Standing on the brakes glowing red,

Vilifying the fuel,

Unlimited rule,

And with communists and fascists they sleep in bed.

 

The elite are saving democracy from the populists,

Lit blue by monitors censoring and making lists,

Cancel the election right now,

The oligarch said in a row,

As he pounded the table with his closed fists.

 

Of all the hills to fight over,

Defending a national horror,

Are they deaf to the cry,

And blind in one eye,

But that’s what you can expect from Labour.

 

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Christianity Is Europe’s Source Of Vitality

Posted on March 2, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, the reason Europe went from besieged on all sides in the 1400s, to conquering the world by the 1800s, is because of Christianity. Others would point to warfare, technology or maybe forced evolution, from the existential catastrophes Middle Ages Europeans had to suffer through. Like the Plague, Islamic invasions from the south, and the Vikings from the north. I argue Christianity is the first cause, the rest are resulting causes. Why? Because philosophy presages science, technology and innovation. Moreover, Christianity introduced several philosophic innovations. The idea we are made in the image of God himself, our sins can be forgiven, and the Golden Rule. Each mundane sounding but seismic in outcome. Leading to Europe’s vitality and conquering the world.

Philosophy must come before new science, technology or innovation. Because a new philosophy gives people a new way of thinking. That new way of thinking opens up a multitude of possibilities, that were unthinkable before. Which allows science to advance. With the follow on increase in technology. Both of which further open the minds of men allowing for innovation. All based on a new philosophy, or new way of looking at the world. If someone went back in time to ancient Rome, and told them how to become an industrialized modern society, that time traveler would have been crucified. Because the changes needed would so upset the society and elites, the promoter of it would have to be made an example of. Because the philosophy of ancient Rome wasn’t up to the task.

Christianity introduced several critical philosophies to Europe that completely changed the paradigm. The idea you and I are made in the image of God is one. It opened up a whole new way of looking at people. From then on, no Christian could enslave another human being, because that would be figuratively enslaving and abusing God himself. Which made human slavery unthinkable. An idea that circled the world along with colonization. The divine nature of Man opened up the possibility that people could voluntarily work for pay instead of as slaves. Who then could buy the output of the economy, increasing aggregate demand. Leading to an economy with high and growing productivity, the need for industrialization, as well as free speech and thought, opening up innovation.

Some claim the unlimited power of European monarchs was a deciding factor. They say, the constant religious wars generated innovations, that allowed European armies to outmatch any other on the planet. Unlimited power then, they claim, was the primary cause. To which I might say, unlimited power was certainly not limited to Europe. The Islamic caliphs had far more power, as did many other despotic governments around the world. Moreover, tyrannical power was nothing new. Plus, history is unambiguous, tyranny leads to poverty, across cultures and time. So tyranny couldn’t have been the primary cause of European dominance of the world in 400 years. The primary cause must have been local, significant and unique. Otherwise Europe’s advancement would have been mirrored in the past.

In 1453, Constantinople fell to the Caliphate, Spain was fighting Islamic rule, Vikings were raiding the northern coasts of Europe, Islamic Pirates in the Mediterranean were taking Europeans as slaves, the Silk Road was closed, and the plague had several more rounds to go. Europe was on the rocks and about to go under for the third time. Christianity, which had once been the religion of the Holy Roman Empire, had been concentrated to a small section of the world. Yet European civilization not only survived but thrived. As the Caliphate rotted, that took young Christian men as slaves who would serve as Janissary. While Europe grew healthy. Leading to a world dominated by Europeans in 400 years. Sadly, a people who have abandoned that source of vitality, and it shows.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Limericks

Posted on March 1, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

 

General Smedley Butler said “War is a racket.”

It’s hard to understand so let’s unpack it,

Some people in blood pay,

Others get money and sway,

So the elite can wear a new leather jacket.

 

When politics has the power to ruin people,

We must seek power to insure we’re equal,

Then sold a lie,

To take our pie,

Because the elite have made theft legal.

 

Trudeau is no innocent prankster,

He’s more of a political gangster,

Truth dost bespoke,

He does promote,

The politics of a searing canker.

 

There once was a demagogue called Brandon,

In everything bad and evil he had a hand in,

Destroying a nation,

With sly ingratiation,

And he was lost in space with the finesse of a cannon.

 

Wrongthink and wrongspeak are a terrible sin,

Putting ideas and concepts in a rubbish bin,

The hypocrite knows best,

Censoring us ignorant rest,

And an Orwellian oligarchy they’re ushering in.

 

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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The Tipping Point Between Tyranny And Liberty

Posted on February 28, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, there are two modes of governing, one where the government is limited and the people are unlimited, or one where the people are limited and the government is unlimited. There is no middle ground. Because the two states are like sinks next to one another. One is limited government the other is unlimited government. The rest state is either despotism or liberty. Any state between is a traveling state, that either takes energy, or releases energy. It releases the potential energy built up pushing the ball to the tipping point. If the force is taken away, the ball will return to the rest state of the sink it’s in. Up to the twenty first century, the rest state in the West was that of freedom. Since then the elite have been expending huge amounts of energy pushing the ball towards despotism.

When a state is moving away from liberty and toward unlimited government, the sides are steep, until the rest state (the bottom of the next basin) is reached again. Initially its hard to get up to the lip, but once the lip is passed, the slide to totalitarianism is rapid. Like the old saying, “Slow at first then all at once.” The same can be said of both states. It’s as hard to move a free people to despotism as it is to move tyrannized people to freedom. It requires huge amounts of energy. Once a tipping point is reached though, the slide to the other side becomes rapid. Converting the potential energy built up in the climb to kinetic energy in the descent. Our elites have used titanic volumes of political energy, moving us up that steep side, striving to get us past the tipping point to totalitarianism.

The rest state of a free people is limited government. Which is a problem to those seeking to rule. The globalist elite want unlimited government tyrannizing a limited people. They want the ball in the other basin. The problem for the would be despots is the longer a ball rests in a basin, the deeper that basin becomes. So it takes that much more energy to surpass the tipping point. The West has become very used to freedom though. So used to it our basin is deep. So it takes a great deal of shock to wake us up. Those who do, find themselves way up on the side of the basin, being pushed inexorably towards totalitarianism. That awareness adds to the gravity pulling the ball back into the basin. Amounting to more energy needed to over come each aware person.

Meanwhile the rest state of abused people is unlimited government. Plus the longer a people live under despotism, the deeper that basin becomes. In the Middle East, people have incorporated totalitarianism into their psyche. Making that basin of despotism very deep and steep indeed. Proven by the titanic effort the US and Europe expended, in money and blood, to introduce freedom to people used to tyranny. Who then rejected ill fitting liberty in favor of comfortable tyranny. Because the energy expelled wasn’t sufficient to get them over the tipping point. Who knows how much it would take to make any state there, other than Israel, a liberal democratic republic that practices free enterprise? Maybe nothing short of an existential crisis. God forbid.

I believe the global elites thought they had reached the tipping point, where people become comfortable with tyranny, making despotism inevitable. The governments of the West have spent huge amounts of energy. They’ve enacted laws against wrongthink, and wrong speak, that are far more enthusiastically enforced than laws against the rape of little girls. In the UK, the government refused to investigate multi generational rape gangs, yet imprisoned Tommy Robinson for speaking out against it. The UN demands farms, nuclear power plants and industry in Europe be shut down. Even as the globalists wax their mustaches for war. What they haven’t counted on is the depth of the West’s loathing of despots, making our sides as difficult to overcome as the Middle East’s.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Limericks

Posted on February 27, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

 

There once was a socialist Bernie,

In Plainfield he started his journey,

He stole firewood,

Lived like a hood,

And became the millionaire of which he was so worried.

 

While the elite cheer our soon demise,

They order us not to believe our eyes.

Laughingly they say,

You won’t go away,

As our servitude the elite do normalize.

 

There once was a genius named Jordan,

Often doing battle with a political gorgon,

He said with a smile,

It may take awhile,

But right thought and action leads to good fortune.

 

There once was a media you couldn’t beat,

Speaking as one they ruled by copy sheet,

Evacuated in their food,

I don’t want to be rude,

But everyone knows you don’t poop where you eat.

 

There’s one thing we all do know,

Taxes empower despotism’s show,

Thrasymachus had sight,

Wrong is now right,

And unrealized gain can’t be allowed to grow.

 

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Waste, Fraud And Abuse

Posted on February 26, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, it takes a special kind of zealot to defend government waste, fraud and abuse. One with no self-awareness, or an entertainer type whose reputation is that of an entertainer, or paid shill, not a serious pundit. The legacy media had a reputation of honesty. As did the courts. They savaged that like a Bobcat does a goose. The golden eggs have stopped but the goose made a great meal. Now the same people that gaslit us for decades, abused us under color of law, and have lost all credibility for it, demand we pretend they can be trusted. I do give them some sympathy though, imagine having to defend waste, fraud and abuse, to those whose money is wasted, the victims of fraud and people who are abused? Shredding any mote of trust they may still have, and thus, their business model.

I’m not sure defending waste fraud and abuse is organic nor authentic. Put another way, those who are defending waste, fraud and abuse, would not tolerate it in their own lives. Yet they expect us to tolerate our money wasted, us being defrauded and abused by the courts under color of law? That’s hypocrisy. No hypocrite should ever be taken seriously. Even a Pharisee. Because the hypocrite always uses hypocrisy to lower, never to elevate. Even if the message sounds good. Therefore following a hypocrite leads to disaster. Take the examples of Mao, Stalin and Marx, each the acme of hypocrisy. Leading their followers to hell on Earth. Moreover, the hypocrite can’t be authentic, our authentic self is in our actions, not our rhetoric. Even as organic ideas come from within, and aren’t bought and paid for.

We know the legacy media took payola from the government because DOGE exposed it. USAID was giving money to the main stream media literally for “mass deception.” Which suggests the strident defense of waste fraud and abuse indeed, isn’t intuited, but a product. A product like advertising, that’s sold to fund the enterprise. The other parts are to increase the profitability. Attributes like trust, honesty and good intentions, merely increase the profitability of propaganda. The more viewers who trust a media organization then, the greater the profitability of their propaganda. Which is the incentive for them to demand censorship, thought laws and licenses to speak… profit. It’s their business model. The mouth of Sauron will always have a voice. It’s the whistle blowers who will be silenced.

We used to have great confidence in our courts. US courts were known around the world as a bastion of fairness. That, of course, was all a lie. US courts as well as all courts, operate on political favor… not justice or law. From the New York courts abusing Trump under color of law, to Delaware courts abusing Elon Musk, and even Texas and Connecticut courts abusing Alex Jones under color of law, in plain sight, our courts have proven they are the mouths of Sauron. Not arbiters of justice or law. Today the courts are openly usurping the role of the Executive. In open violation of the plain wording of our Constitution. And they do it with impunity. Judges and prosecutors have ruled they are above the same laws they impose on others. Totaling their reputations.

As you and I struggle to make ends meet, we’re told by the media and courts, we have no right to know how the government spends the money it takes from us at gun point. Don’t believe taxes are taken at gun point? Try not paying and see if armed men don’t show up at your door. The threat is implicit. So we have courts and a media that claims unelected bureaucrats wasting our money is of no concern of ours. We should accept the administrative state abuse of us and our trust. Fraud in government is for our good. Yet those are clearly self serving lies. Foisted on us by paid shills, people who killed the goose that laid the golden egg, by defending waste, fraud and abuse, and ruining their reputations because of it. This is a lesson in organizational seppuku.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Transparency & Accountability

Posted on February 25, 2025 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, the solution to all the worlds problems, are transparency and accountability. I offer that every problem faced by mankind today is of our own making. The only reason for hunger are regulations, grift and war. Tyranny, well, that’s obviously of our own making. Why is there mass migration? Because of poor governance. We have solved all the major diseases of mankind, so USAID spent forty million dollars to create some new ones. If there’s a shortage of housing you can bet rent control and regulation are behind it. A lack of career opportunities in a formerly industrialized nation is because of intentional deindustrialization. Any problem you can think of is man made. Created by elites in governments. Which can then be solved by transparency and accountability.

Government is sold to us as the solution, but in reality its the problem, or at least the source of the problems. Many people honestly believe government has a valid role to play in helping people improve their lives… despite all the evidence to the contrary. Instead of elevating people out of poverty, welfare traps people for generations. Even the most virtuous and well meaning government program will, sooner or later, be exploited by bad actors. Distributed blame means no bureaucrat is ever held accountable for the failures of the bureaucracy. Meanwhile, the more government supposedly does, the bigger the ATM it becomes to politically favored cronies. Moreover, the war on drugs, war on poverty and war on terror have all been absolute utter and complete failures. Normalizing failure.

Transparency is the start of accountability. Unless we see the crimes the bureaucrats are committing we can’t charge them. Moreover, normal people are unwilling to commit crime in the light of day in a crowded place. Because they know they’ll be seen, identified and charged. No criminal wants that. It increases overhead to the point where crime doesn’t pay. So transparency is the way we start to add accountability to the elite. The first thing that needs to happen is to make transparency the default. Anything that needs to be hidden should be granted by a judge beforehand. In a confrontational court. Not a rubber stamp like the US courts have become. If everything every government worker does, is put on the internet in real time, nothing will go unnoticed.

Accountability is the cornerstone of all occupations. Imagine an engineer who’s planes exploded, buildings collapsed or cradles folded into baby killing machines? Would such an engineer be allowed to continue drawing such deadly prints? What about a manufacturer who was producing dangerous and defective products? How about a doctor who never had a patient recover under his care? We would never allow such failures from any professional… except a government expert. They can be wrong all the time. Leading to death, disaster and catastrophe. Yet the more wrong they are, the more power we give them. Because there’s no accountability in bureaucracy. Although, if a bureaucrat puts a paperclip in the wrong corner denoting two copies instead of one, she will be punished.

If we agree that government is indeed the source of our problems today, then controlling government would solve them. The way to do that is with transparency and accountability. Transparency so we can see what’s going on, and accountability so the failures, fraud and scandals of officials can be punished. Providing incentive not to violate our Constitution, our interests or their own laws. Those who thrive in the dark are the likeness of mold, and do the same thing, eat prosperity. Turning the useful into the useless. Doing nothing hasn’t worked, so why not try something? Contact Congress, senators, judges, the press and anyone who will listen… then demand transparency and accountability in government. DOGE is cutting the ditch, let’s build the road to a better world.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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