in shark infested seasDear Friends,
It seems to me, civilizations collapse because of nesting bias. When we’re threatened, real or perceived, we tend to grab onto the familiar. We retreat to the nest. Even if that’s what’s dragging us under. I think this is one reason civilizations fall. Everyone sees the problem, but continues doing the negative behavior that is leading to it anyway. Because we cling to what we know in the face of chaos. Livy the historian, Titus Livius, warned Romans of their future and was roundly criticized for it. Today his warning is taken for granted as history. Sometimes it’s because one is benefiting from the paradigm, other times people cling because of arrogance, but in most regular people, I think we grasp onto the familiar, even if it’s the source of the trouble… which is is nesting bias.
History is a litany of civilizations rising in virtue and falling in vice. Which is to say, civilizations rise when they follow their societal myth and fall once they abandon it. Sparta fell shortly after minting gold instead of iron, Athens fell after embracing foreign entanglements, and Rome fell when it gave up on the republican system. Just as the West is in collapse today for abandoning our societal myths… minting paper instead of gold, embracing foreign entanglements and has turned it’s back on limited government. Because of these attacks on our societal myths, our society is in collapse. By every real measure, birthrate, general prosperity, standard of living, life expectancy, etc… the West is losing ground. Everyone knows this, we also know the elite are to blame, but the elite are the devil we know.
Following the devil we know is the nesting bias in action. We have grown up with the bureaucracy regulating every aspect of our lives. Even though those regulations are ruining our lives, we cling to them for their familiarity. Ironically, when things are great, we are only too happy to embrace the negative. Since we’re not stressed we become ore open minded. Which starts the swerve away from the societal myth and towards collapse. Then, the closer to collapse we get, the more stressed we get, and the more clingy we become, and we cling to the wrong thing. The very things that created the mess. Yet those negative ideas and actions are now familiar and thus comfortable… they become our nest. So we are loath to turn away from a nest in times of chaos… even when that’s exactly what we need to do.
Change is always scary, especially if we’re talking about a change in the paradigm. Even when that change is back to a system that follows our societal myth. Because by the time people are clinging to the system to stave off drowning, they despise their societal myth. In the West, people have turned away from Christianity and embraced atheist materialism, detest free enterprise and love socialism, even as we’ve been taught to question our sex but not the government. Yet many hold tight to the same people destroying our civilization, because they’re familiar. The nesting bias in action. I think the nesting bias is more attractive to women than men. Obviously, because I’m a bigot, as well as the fact women who bear most of the responsibility for child rearing need a nest.
As a result, we march right behind a devil we know, because he’s familiar and assures us he’ll fix the problems he created… and are astounded we end up in Hell. When clinging to driftwood, only the most brave are likely to try to swim to a distant life raft. The rest have a dozen reasons why they should stay. It’s a survival mechanism. If some swim to the life raft and others stay, some are likely to make it to safety. Sometimes the survivors are the clingers on driftwood, but most often it’s the well stocked life raft. This is the nesting bias in a nutshell and is why great civilizations fall. Because in times of plenty we experiment, and when those experiments go bad we cling to them, until we drown or are eaten by sharks. Which is the case in Canada today.
Sincerely,
John Pepin
