Economy as Environment

Dear Friends,

It seems to me that if we look at the “economy” as an aggregate, it is an analog of an ecosystem. Individual markets and industries are like organisms in that ecosystem.

This organic way of looking at the economy and markets gives us the ability to contextualize the historic trends and events that have shaped our economy. With this insight we can then extrapolate into the future to try to minimize government’s unhelpful tinkering with the economy.

Take the Great Depression. In this period the Hoover administration poisoned the economy then compounded that toxic spill of regulation with anti trade legislation. Roosevelt then ran as a conservative claiming that he would back off on government spending and over regulation. After he won, he doubled down on Hoover’s foolishness, and kept the economy in the toilet with constant tinkering, regulation, tax changes and such unconstitutional acts as the NRA and AAA. Roosevelt continued to rain toxic waste on the economic environment until the Second World War. A war that was made inevitable by the anti trade tariffs and legislation that cut Germany from international trade while the German Republic shouldered the burden of the Treatise of Versailles‘s reparations. “When goods don’t cross boarders armies will.”

Markets are like organism’s in many ways. They are born, live some natural life span and then become obsolete and die. Buggy whips are the classic example. With the advent of the buggy, buggy whips were invented, to improve the driver’s control of his animals. The buggy whip saw a steady series of improvements, and eventually became obsolete when the automobile came into wide spread use. A market can get cancer as well.

The railroads are an example of industrial cancer. When the tracks were mostly laid. The railroad magnates began a trade war. This trade war almost bankrupted them. It’s now a well known phenomenon. Networks are especially vulnerable to this form of market cancer. They are expensive to build but cheap to maintain and use. When competition becomes mature it then must become monopoly or else begins to grow into perfect competition. Government legislation prevents monopoly so when perfect competition is established the profit margin is squeezed and squeezed until everyone in the industry is poor. From the magnate, to the laborer, destitution is universal. The modern airlines are another example.

I believe that this tool for understanding the economy and markets is easier for the average person to understand. With a better understanding of history and economics the electorate can make wiser decisions about our economic future.

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Madoff’s Effects on our Economy

Dear Friends,

It seems to me that with the economy in shambles and the banking sector a ruin, the SEC would at least have the common sense to come out and reassure the American people that the investment sector is healthy and the Madoff issue is an aberration.

But I haven’t heard a single word of reassurance from the SEC. They are big on excuses but they haven’t said that there are not more like Madoff out there. Every investor in the USA and the world that is invested in the USA now has better reason to fear. How many more $54,000,000,000.00 ponzy schemes are waiting to be discovered?

A political philosopher once said, what makes a king a king is simply public opinion. In other words if the world was to wake up and forget the king is the king he would no longer be king. The apparatus of the crown would evaporate. So another way to look at it is that what makes a recession is simply public opinion. The means to fully employ the workforce is at hand. The minerals are still in the ground. The people are still in need of employment and goods. The machinery of civilization is still functional and the knowledge base is still available to run it. The only thing in the way is public opinion.

What affects public opinion better than an old fashioned scandal? This new slap in the face of the investor only serves to further diminish public opinion. Leading to a deepening of the recession. It is the job of the SEC not only to find and punish this behavior but to assure the investing public that the system is fair and safe.

It appears that the SEC has dropped the ball on all three fronts. If a private firm were to be guilty or simply look this guilty, the hew and cry for heads to roll would be deafening. Lets listen to the roar of indignation leading to heads at the SEC rolling. Hopefully the crickets won’t be too loud to hear it.

By the way, I have yet to hear about anyone in the unbiased media asking about the House Banking and Finance Oversight Committee’s dropping the ball in the banking scandal. Let alone anyone asking for an investigation. (Other than I). I guess the crickets cacophony drowned out that roar…

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Recession

Dear Reader,

It seems to me that recession sows the seeds of it’s own demise. Those seeds are “pent up demand.”

What I mean by pent up demand is that, when there is talk or actual recession, people naturally put off buying. When we do this we still want the item. We only put off, so to speak, the purchasing of the item. Thus demand is pent up it doesn’t go away.

As this pent up demand grows people are more willing to spend on the wanted goods and services and in some cases needed items. When this tension of pent up demand out powers the resistance of recession the economy comes out of recession. Springing into too fast growth.

This can be seen by the recession of 200-2001. The economy had largely replaced every computer with a new Y2K compliant computer. When the millennium came the market was saturated with computers and other digital equipment. Demand fell off the table. When that happened, the driver of the economy (the semi conductor industry), went south, causing the rest of the economy to go south as well. In doing so the semiconductor market dragged the rest of the economy into recession.

Business didn’t need to buy any new computers for several years. So business couldn’t be the driver of the economy. People put off purchasing goods because of the talk of recession. But when people didn’t see the dire predictions come true they began to buy the goods and services that they had put off. Springing the economy into too fast growth.

Some will argue that the Great Depression didn’t produce any pent up demand in ten years. The Great depression was an anomaly in many ways. It was the congruence of many factors…To name a very few; The dust bowl in the US bread basket, The nations of the world choked off international trade, the US government as well as most nations in Europe turned to socialistic overly powerful governments, taxes were raised and regulation was chaotic. These are some examples of why the world struggled to come out of the depression of the 1930’s. The people were newly out of the time when they had to live by their own wits. The peasant farm in Appalachia and the other rural areas of the US were well entrenched and easy to fall back into. Demand for new technology was suppressed by the 24-7 need to survive.

Too fast growth always outstrips the ability of the market to absorb the goods and services produced and quenches demand. Aggregate supply outstripping aggregate demand. Demand is elastic however. As is supply. This leads naturally to periods of too fast growth and too slow growth (recession). It is the natural frequency of the market economy as it is any organism.

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When You Get Lemons…

Dear Reader,

It seems to me that if we want to really mitigate the carbon dioxide output of coal fired power plants we would use the carbon dioxide to make oil. This way we could actually re-burn the coal… With a little help.

Bubbling the carbon dioxide through algae filled water, using the proper strain of algae, we could then process the algae into oil. Oil that could be burned in diesel engines. Remember, scientists think the oil we have is the remnants of vast algal mats that spread for miles, millions of years ago. They died, fell to the bottom, were covered, became rock, and voila!

Algae factories could revolutionize the energy paradigm. Factories could be built near power plants. The business plan is most promising to find an old dirty plant that is vital. Charge them through the teeth to process the smoke and then sell your output (oil) at the market price.

The idea of sequestering carbon dioxide underground, to me, is quite scary. Talk about potential unintended consequences. What potential aquifers are we potentially turning into carbonic acid? Or the plot of a mediocre horror flick, millions of cubic yards of pure carbon dioxide is suddenly released in an urban setting. They told them, but they didn’t listen and blasted for the new subway, thousands are suffocated, a few try to get away, this is their story…

Of course, the whole presupposition that global warming or potentially global cooling, is man made is foolish. Not that, I don’t think that it is possible, in the future, with due diligence, to terraform another planet. But that is another blog…

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Taliban in India?

Dear Readers,

It seems to me that if the terror attacks in Mumbai were not done by the insurgents in western Pakistan (Taliban) it should have been. They are the principle beneficiaries.

The tensions between Pakistan and India over the terror attacks has drawn attention from the terrorists in western Pakistan to the terrorists in Kashmir. With the world’s attention turned on the new crisis the Taliban can rest and refit.

If India does indeed go onto a war footing with Pakistan it would necessitate the removal of all Pakistani troops from western Pakistan. The Taliban would greatly benefit under this scenario. The facing off of two nuclear powers would rivet the world’s attention. The war on terror would be pushed to the back.

The one thing that always rivets the attention of the people in a nation is an outside threat. People instinctively come together when there is a valid menace at the gate else they are often all killed. It’s bred into us. This would put the moderates and even agnostics into the extremist camp in Pakistan.

At the least we can expect India to expand it’s operations in Afghanistan. Antagonizing Pakistan. Afghanistan is the elephant in the room. Although it is on the other side of Pakistan it’s shadow darkens the entire mess. Anything that happens on the Indian boarder with Pakistan has a greater effect on the Afghani side. The fulcrum is Pakistan…in more ways than one.

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Terror in India

Dear Readers,

It seems to me that if the terror attacks in Mumbai were not done by the insurgents in western Pakistan (Taliban) it should have been. They are the principle beneficiaries.

The tensions between Pakistan and India over the terror attacks has drawn attention from the terrorists in western Pakistan to the terrorists in Kashmir. With the world’s attention turned on the new crisis the Taliban can rest and refit.

If India does indeed go onto a war footing with Pakistan it would necessitate the removal of all Pakistani troops from western Pakistan. The Taliban would greatly benefit under this scenario. The facing off of two nuclear powers would rivet the world’s attention. The war on terror would be pushed to the back.

The one thing that always rivets the attention of the people in a nation is an outside threat. People instinctively come together when there is a valid menace at the gate else they are often all killed. It’s bred into us. This would put the moderates and even agnostics into the extremist camp in Pakistan.

At the least we can expect India to expand it’s operations in Afghanistan. Antagonizing Pakistan. Afghanistan is the elephant in the room. Although it is on the other side of Pakistan it’s shadow darkens the entire mess. Anything that happens on the Indian boarder with Pakistan has a greater effect on the Afghani side. The fulcrum is Pakistan…in more ways than one.

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Regulation

Dear Reader,

It seems to me that the Elite are building a new societal myth… That Regulation is always good.

Regulation can in deed be good. When it serves to control the actions of overly powerful industrialists from visiting on us some negative externality. Take Banks for example. A bank will take huge risks in a boom time. Then when times get tough the bank finds itself overextended. Putting the assets of it’s investors and more importantly it’s depositors at risk. This in turn lengthens and deepens a recession. Or an industrialist who buys a network such as a railroad, then destroys it to eliminate competition, and charges monopoly prices. Examples go on and on.

However regulation is mostly bad. Regulation is a tool in the tool kit of the Elite. Regulation is mostly used to distort the market. One thing we always have to keep in mind is that no one thinks he or she is getting a fair deal. We all complain that prices are too high but the price we get for our output is too low. (Even the lawyer who is getting paid $200.00 an hour to eat a free meal). So the Elite use regulation to change the outcome of the market to favor their cronies. The Elite regulate to build and maintain their power… an extremely corrupt practice.

This is particularly bad. As we at the International Capitalist Party keep reiterating, when the common people see the Elite not only being corrupt but also getting away with it, the common people feel no compunction to follow the law themselves. Why would we? When the Elite are breaking every law put in place to limit their power with immunity, we feel we had better get what we can while we can, else we will be in the cold. While the corrupt will be warm.

Another negative use of regulation is to disable your political opponent’s voice. It has always been in the nature of tyranny to stifle the voice of people who disagree. So if you want to know which political faction has the most tyrannical tendencies listen to the rhetoric of the factions. The faction that seeks to stifle the voice of the others through the use of regulation and with ad homonym attacks to redirect the discussion to the person making the point instead of addressing the point. The faction that engages in this behavior is the faction we must be most afraid of. Not to say we shouldn’t fear the others too…

Like everything in this universe… A little goes a long way. Overuse of anything is bad. Even things that are good. Like for example pears. Pears are good for you. They have roughage, vitamins, and minerals. One a day would be a good regimen for almost anyone. But a bushel of pears a day would lead to many negative side effects. The poor person wouldn’t be able to get far from the bathroom for one thing. The point is, that goods, like regulation, should be done in proportion and thoughtfully, but most importantly not too much.

So, if the Elite get the new societal myth believed, they will have a powerful tool in their toolkit of oppression…

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Independence and the Elite

Dear Reader,

It seems to me that almost everyone would want to be independent. Free from government intrusion into their lives.

History shows that no one is immune from the vulgarities of fortune. (As epitomized in the Solon/Croesus story related elsewhere in this website). If we are subject to having anything we have taken violently from us the only thing we can be said to really have is ourselves. Where was the first place an army intruding into a city, in the city States period, did an invading army go? To the towers built by the rich, to elevate themselves and keep safe their gold, from the people. They knew where the gold was. An army can resort to tactics to enter a tower that a mob cannot. Forcefully assuring our premise, (that the only thing we can be said to really have is ourselves).

By ourselves I mean to say all that we are. Our lives can be taken at any moment by misfortune, sickness, age or violence, but, who we are and what we think, but not what we do, is out of the reach of the Elite. I should think the average person would want to be as far from the influence of the Elite to compel action as possible. The wiser person would want their children to be free from the Elite’s indoctrination.

The Nazi’s took children from their parents to minimize the possible bad influence of them, indoctrinated them, and turned them into the Hitler Youth. It was all done very logically. Beware of the Elite’s logic when it comes to the interests of the children. Our children are nothing but tools to them. The reason they are the Elite is that they are sociopaths.

Once the door has been opened it cannot be shut. As the Elite gain power it cannot be taken back… without the use of violence. Seldom is there a bloodless coup. So I would think that everyone (who is not a member of the Elite) would want to be as independent from government as possible. But I guess I’m wrong… Judging by the last two elections in the USA.

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More On The Bailout

Dear Reader,

It seems to me that that we have paid off the corrupt cronies of the government, and low and behold, it didn’t fix the economy. The Banks, still, are not lending. Now we hear that consumer credit is drying up. I hear the genius that is spending our money claims he is doing a bang up job.

The problem is still the reticence of banks to loan money when they don’t know the ground on which they stand has stopped moving. Unless they are lending someone else’s money. Had the treasury been given the money to buy new loans the credit lines wouldn’t have been locked up. Banks would have been happy to lend our money back to us. (Lend government money to the people and businesses).

As yet the government of the USA has done nothing but destabilize the markets. First with regulation now with telegraphed punches. The government should not be buying banks. That is a way certain to stifle economic growth.

Government is nothing but bureaucracy, in banking, it would reach it’s culmination. Imagine the friction to the economy if the people in charge of the money supply were paid hourly, with his paper clips counted but with no accountability to the public. What should take hours or minuets will stretch to days or months. Our economy would grind to a halt. Or the market would find a way around the bottleneck. Regardless the friction would lower the lot of generations.

I have finally heard someone else call for an investigation into the government’s involvement in the financial mess. I called for a special prosecutor to look into the governments duplicity in the way of; regulation that led to this outcome, the role of the oversight committee in failing to recognize the situation and take effective action to stem the problem before it exploded in our faces, Investigate the Executives role in policing the markets, Investigate links to and from the regulators to those that are regulated and investigate why didn’t Freddy Mac and Fannie May and the department that oversees them come clean sooner and with a plan to fix the problem? Hopefully more people will start calling for an impartial look into the role of the government in this fiasco.

Once again, the government should stop propping up unstable institutions (although it is too late), stop “bailing out” companies, and start buying newly originated loans (presumably, to those companies that claim to need a “bail out”). Buying newly originated loans at the market rate in competition with the market would stimulate the market to compete for the business. Instead of focusing inward and destroying their nerve it would strengthen the industry and invigorate it to beat the government.

Unfortunately money that should be used to keep the “general glut” from becoming a depression is being given to the corrupt people who visited this mess on us in the first place.

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Congratulations President Elect Obama

Dear Reader,

It seems to me that we have entered into a new age. The synchronistic events that have witnessed are historic. The International Capitalist Party welcomes the fact that a man of African descent has entered into the halls of power in the United States. President Elect Obama now has the most difficult presidency of any man to date, save one.

With his party in such total control of both the Senate and the House he will be tempted by the Devil himself. The Ruling Party has the ability to call a constitutional convention. With only a few members of the Minor Party’s defecting to the Ruling Party’s Cause. That is how much power the Ruling Party has at this time.

The only other time this much power was given to one Party, at the beginning of a recession, our grandparents and great grandparents experienced the Great Depression, culminating in the Second World War. The similarities are amazing.

We are at the beginning of a recession, caused in part, by a disruption in the Banking Sector. We have a recently beaten enemy..? We have a historic President. The “unbiased” media is largely on the side of the Party in power. And Power is focused in the hands of a few individuals with no one else having any real constitutional power to check it.

President elect Obama will have to try to reign in his temptations to change what has worked for two hundred years. Else he risks things going wildly astray. (As they always have… historically). Innovations in government should be well thought out. But more importantly they must stand the test of generations.

An idea will have real merit if it can stand the test of being believed in for three or more generations. If an idea has a life of one generation, and only a few of them believe it, it cannot be said to be of real merit. However if an idea can stand the test, of a majority, of three or more generations believing in the idea, the idea in question is clearly of merit and should be put into use… prudently.

To date the best means to this end is a weak government. A strong government can implement any whim it sees fit to thrust on society. Innovation after innovation. Chaos that freezes up markets. A blanket of snow under which nothing can grow. The snow must melt before spring can come. The innovations are the snow. The craziest of which must be rolled back. Then the shock must be let to set in. The market will adjust but it needs time for the thaw.

When government is weak, it must have the majority of the people, for an extended period, to make innovations. When this is the case, the innovations are planned for in advance and the market can adapt before the innovation is implemented. The markets are not disrupted and the economy continues to grow.

President Elect Obama will be at the helm of the most powerful government in three generations. Lets pray he takes the prudent course of action and history is not repeated…

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