Dear Friends,
It seems to me that most people are rational maximizes. But there are a few who are not. Zealots, tyrants (who and sociopaths) are not.
When we are dealing with an average person we are dealing with a rational maximizer. A rational maximizer is a person who rationally adds up the pros and cons of a given purchase, decision or action, and chooses according to the outcome of the equation…. Maximizing the benefit to him or herself. This is the way economists think of people.
Once we know we are dealing with a rational maximizer we know there are bridges they will not cross. We also know they seek to get the most from any transaction we have with them… Consciously or unconsciously. There is a pattern to their actions and decisions that we can have some comfort in. They are rational…
However when dealing with a person who is not a rational maximizer we are in a tenuous position. We have no reference points. They are capable of unthinkable actions… But is it their fault if we deal with them as rational maximizers… or is it ours?
Take for example North Korea. It is plain that Kim is a sociopath. All tyrants are sociopaths. It is a necessary attribute of being a tyrant. So when Clinton, Bush, or Obama deal with him as a rational maximizer they are being foolish. Kim doesn’t fear sanctions. Sanction only hurt the proletariat. They are expendable. Kim gets what he wants regardless of sanctions.
He now wields nuclear tipped missiles. He has nuclear bombs for his bombers. Regardless of all the sanctions and all the saber rattling. Today he is churning them out as fast as he can. He even has press releases about it.
So our leaders have dealt with a non rational maximizer like he was a rational maximizer. To their (and our) folly. Now a sociopath has atomic bombs to threaten the World with. That he is dieing is a hope. But look at Bashir of Syria. He was an ophthalmologist in Britain when his father and brother, (who was heir to the throne) died. Now Bashir is as much a tyrant as was his father. The machinery still works… even after the creator has died.
So even if Kim dies we are not out of the woods. His kid may be better or he may be worse. With atomic bombs in the mix we are in far more peril from the question.
Now take Iran. They are chugging away at getting the enriched uranium to build a bomb. The Elite in Iran are zealots. They have shown their true colors in the way they handled the riots after the rigged elections. The government even intimidated Iranian citizens outside the country by threatening their relatives inside the country.
Almost every day the Iranian Regime calls for the annihilation of Israel. The Iranian regime even claims it will wipe Israel from the map. In no uncertain words. There is no question about the threat, who it is aimed at, and who the victims will be. The explicit threat is at Israel, Europe and the US. The implicit threat is to Saudi Arabia, China, Russia and India. The victims will be everyone who needs to breath. Radioactive dust will fill the air. Imagine a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran.
The crude weapons the Iranians would launch would produce a mighty cloud of radioactive isotopes. A cloud that would then rain down on everyone on the planet. What fun. Much of the worlds oil supply would be contaminated with radioactivity. Even if the oil in the ground remained untouched the fallout so close to the exchange would contaminate the wells and related hardware. Not to mention the gut wrenching loss of human life.
We know where the road ends. We know who we are dealing with…
Why is it that our leaders keep pretending they are dealing with rational optimizers?
