Paltering

Posted on April 3, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

I learned a new word yesterday, it is to Palter, or to tell the truth in a way such as to deceive. It is different from lying by omission, in that it is actively deceiving, while lying by omission is passive. It is different from lying by commission, in that no actual lie is told. This form of deceit fills the void between the two rather known forms of lying. The way one palters is to tell a truth that is out of context, time, or on a different level of observation. I wonder if the term could be extended to news organizations that use factually correct news stories, that actually give no useful information, but instead instill a sense of unease? They are engaging in telling a truthful story, that is intended to deceive, rather than enlighten… the very definition of paltering.

One such story I recently read, was that the US Pentagon has allocated one hundred thousand body bags, in case they are needed for the Kung flu. The story is, I am sure, factually true, but it is out of context and in a different frame of reference. The story suggests that there is an immediate need for one hundred thousand body bags, when the frame of reference is the future. Meanwhile the article put’s the idea into the mind of the unwary reader, that since the Pentagon is doing it now, it is needed now, but the actual context of the action is for a possible need. Therefore it is clear that such stories are intended to instill a sense of fear and suggestibility to the reader, but not enlighten or inform, which is using a truthful statement to deceive. Which, as we now know… is paltering.

Another set of examples are the stories of impending riots, civil unrest, lawlessness and anger, when there is none yet. Perhaps the “news outlet” is trying to warn us of possible dangers? Maybe, but if that is the case, why do the articles suggesting they are going on now? I suggest these news stories are instead trying to normalize violence. When someone is prone to such acts, especially if they believe they have no stake in society… when told there is rioting, from the same media, subconsciously lose responsibility, so they are more likely to riot. Such news stories are effectively stochastic terrorism, pointing out a target and sending a mob, while pretending one’s own hands are clean. The articles are out of context and in a different frame of reference… paltering.

There are many stories that suggest emergency rooms are full and that there is no where near enough equipment to handle the crowds. On the other hand, citizen journalists have gone to those same places and recorded they are deserted. How do we rectify these things? Is it possible the media reporting these things, are reporting that there will be shortages? Reporting the truth, out of the frame of reference people assume, with an eye to deceive us into panicking… paltering by definition. Which brings us to why? Why would the unbiased media try to manipulate us into self harm, by panicking and rioting? Only a mind reader knows. Some, however, would point to that alone as reason enough not to believe they are doing it. Those who know history… know better.

The constant drumbeat of stories designed to manipulate us into panic and anger fill our day. If we don’t watch TV or listen to radio, they appear in our email, Facebook feeds, Twitter links, Gabs and Instagrams. We are deluged by paltering. It caused the run on toilet paper. Paltering became a self fulfilling prophesy then, and can again. If we examine the “news” we are fed with a keen eye, we will notice the unbiased media not only lies by omission and commission, but most often by paltering… a factually correct story, told out of context, intended to deceive. In the end, we will know if panicking was the right move, until then, it might be best to use reason to detect when someone is manipulating us by paltering… rather than running on the nitro methane of fear and anger.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Oppression as a Tool to Fight Oppression

Posted on April 1, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, using oppression to stop oppression, is like setting an arsonist’s house on fire, it does nothing to stop the arson, it only makes it worse. There is a powerful philosophical theory, making it’s way through the heads of young people and university professors today, that the best way to stop oppression, is to oppress those, the would be oppressor sees, are oppressors. They see oppression of those who have never damaged them personally, but are members of groups known to oppress, as righteous behavior. In other words, progressives see oppression as a virtuous act, when they do it. Not at all self serving or arrogant, progressives see themselves as being in the best position to decide which groups are oppressors and should then be oppressed.

Setting yourself up as judge, prosecutor, jury and executioner, is very empowering. Then going to the extreme of silencing the defense is a means certain to get a conviction, and then oppress the evil oppressor. Being the only opinion that counts, allows those in that illustrious position to sit above the common lot of mankind, lost in our personal bigotries, grudges, incompetencies and ignorance, those ubermen capable of being judge, prosecutor, jury and executioner, don’t have. They are, well, just better people. At least in their own minds. Another point of view might say that someone who puts herself into that position, rather than being sublimely wise and erudite, is in fact arrogant, hubristic, egoistic and unwise to the Nth degree. That is of course only an opinion.

Which does point out another problem with using oppression to fight the oppressor, that is how do you know who the oppressor really is? Progressives have that handled easily, they break humanity into groups, if you are a member of a group that has traditionally been oppressed, by the standards of the progressive faction of course, then you are the oppressed, no matter how much you might oppress others. If, on the other hand, you are a member of a group that is considered an oppressor group, then no matter your personal virtue, you are an oppressor and therefore should be oppressed, in the name of justice. By that standard, Eric Bonhoffer deserved to be oppressed, because of the group he belonged to, despite his personal virtue in giving his own life fighting oppression. Problem solved.

One might claim that using oppression to fight oppression, is an excuse someone who wants to oppress might use to justify his oppression, that notion is debunked. No need to look into it. Clearly, a progressive who is oppressing someone of an oppressor group, is only beating that 80 year old woman… to protect some young unemployed, unemployable, substance addicted gang members, from her oppression. She may look at them disapprovingly and thus oppress them. Plus being a member of a traditional oppressor class she has it coming, if for no other reason, than to balance out the books on oppression. When a speaker is shouted down and exposed to airhorns at close range, that is merely keeping the oppressor from oppressing the oppressed, by oppressing them first.

Personally, I feel oppressing others is a bad thing, but then again I am a libertarian, not a progressive. As such, I don’t have the personal absolute certainty that I am in all things correct, so correct that I am duty bound to oppress oppressors. It is handy that the rules are so clear cut, all members of oppressor groups are to be oppressed… couldn’t be easier to pick out who should be oppressed, in the name of justice. You see… in my libertarian/conservative world view, I would judge an Eric Bonhoffer, Schindler, Theresa of Calcutta or Pope John Paul II, by their acts and character, rather than the color of their skin. Then again, I don’t have the sublime wisdom or the hard heartedness of a progressive, to oppress the oppressor… even if I could tell who they really are. Instead… I’ll leave all that up to God.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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My Site Has Been Hacked

Posted on March 30, 2020 by john

My site appears to have been hacked and the hacker left a back door. My host… Hostgator.com will do nothing to help me… so it is possible that in the near future this site will have to be abandoned to the hackers. (I have paid for several years from them).

The ip of the attacker appears to be 122.55.94.34.

Does anyone know how I can purge my site of this backdoor?
Reply to admin@incapp.org

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Risk in the Singular and the Plural

Posted on March 29, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, if someone wants to risk his own life, that is up to him, but if he seeks to risk the lives of millions, that is not up to him. If a daredevil wants to jump a canyon on a motorcycle, that is his or her business. Yes it will cost some to scrape his bloody remains from the canyon wall, but in the meantime, they will remind others of the folly of that action. On the other hand, those who are willing to risk the lives of millions of others, to try to leap human nature, historical example and the hard laws of economics, are acting as villains, not heroes. One would think this obvious, but since so many today are willing to risk the lives of literally tens of millions of other people, clearly, it is not. Although, most of the people risking the lives of so many others, believe themselves heroes, not villains.

No villain believes him or herself to be the villain, they always believe themselves the hero, at least of their story, and that is all that counts to many people. Even and especially those captured by the idea of nihilism. They see everything as irrelevant, and believe that to be a great revelation of wisdom, and seek to prove that insight to the world by their nihilistic acts. They see their nihilism as an heroic stand against a cruel, compassionless and arbitrary universe, and if there is a God, so much the better. What is even more ironic, are the self described heroes who try to rectify the world, while being unable to make their own bed. Who else could possibly be more qualified to right the world… than someone unable to get their own lives in order? Then again, it’s easier to force another to do good, than do it yourself.

The consequences for society of a person who smears themselves across a canyon wall are minimal. At worse the body could be left to the buzzards. People will be put off and others will be incensed, but all in all, the consequences are pretty modest for society. Harsh for the idiot… but mild for society. Moreover, the example stands as a reminder to others of the foolishness of that action, one that will serve to save at least another, would be daredevil, or possibly encourage someone to try that impossible trick again. In the end, there will always be daredevils, they will risk their own lives, and as sovereign human beings that is their right, yet government suppresses their right to risk their own lives, while encouraging people who want to risk the lives of millions. Does that make sense?

This is partly because of, as Bastiat said, things seen and things unseen. We all see the entrails sliding down the canyon wall and chatter among ourselves how awful it is. It is seen. While the deaths of millions are hidden. The Black Death, that swept across the planet taking a substantial portion of humanity with it, was the result of living in filth. People didn’t recognize the danger of rat infested open sewers that provided the ground state for the plague. That was unseen, while the results, the deaths, was seen by all. We perceive the world not as it is but to maximize our ability to survive. Therefore there is much that we don’t see and occasionally it is a lethal danger to our survival. The fleas on rats was the unseen as a danger by Europeans, while it was obvious, socialism is the same today.

We don’t see the danger of socialism because the hundred million deaths that are the wages of it… are hidden from us. They remain unseen, and so we don’t account for them, when we make choices that put the lives of tens of millions more in jeopardy. The socialist thinks themselves a hero of humanity, standing up for the oppressed against the oppressor, they never stop to think the idea that has captured them has been tried over and over, and has always resulted in a human catastrophe. Because for the most part… they don’t know. So we are in the unenviable position of having people, ignorant of the history of socialism and unable to make their own beds, zealously putting the lives of millions of us at risk, should they get their wish. Remember… Pol Pot was a hero in many eyes at the time.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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Will Corona Improve the Lot of Man or Lower it?

Posted on March 27, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, there could be some encouraging outcomes of this kung flu panic, in education, manufacturing and the destruction of people’s complacency. Some unfortunate outcomes might be heading our way as well. Government has used this emergency to move the Overton window towards autocracy. The money printing is epic, having ramifications no one can tell at this time, and social distancing has put electronic communication between all of us… with all that implies. There is good and bad in everything, if you look for it, and some of what we might consider good or bad may turn out to be the opposite. Rest assured though… this panic will eventually be nothing but a footnote in history books. Until then, we’ll have to wait and see how this turns out.

In education, the ubiquitous use of telepresence and teleeducation can only show the cracks in the facade of higher education. Why take on unforgivable debt for an “education” that teaches you not how to get a great job, nor how to manage money, and certainly not how to be an entrepreneur, but instead how to alienate potential employers, the art of suicide bombing a conversation and three easy steps to staying in your parent’s basement forever. That, ahem, “educators” openly worry their content will be available for anyone to see, I wonder if the real fear is that the parents might discover the drivel they are paying tens of thousands for, and recognizing there is a quality alternative… once and for all breaking the mystique of university education, and it’s socialist indoctrination.

Bringing manufacturing back to the US can only help the US economy, drug epidemic and pandemic of hopelessness. This could only happen by the Wuhan Corona jarring people out of their normalcy bias. Instead of hording toilet paper, maybe people will store a month’s worth of food in their basement. Practice first in first out, and next time be in the position of laughing at those with a shopping cart full of toilet paper, instead of being that panicked person. Waking the American people up is always a dangerous thing. It is like awakening the Kraken. In this case it will probably result in a clawing back of manufacturing and a few people keeping a bit of extra food on hand, in case of an emergency, but it could always end up in Godzilla like destruction.

Those who favor arbitrary rule, and make no mistake, there are many, have used this crisis to grab a few more powers, for our own good of course, “temporarily.” Like the payroll tax. By doing so they have changed what is considered acceptable use of government power. The stimulus that they have passed will keep the printing presses red hot, then the IRS will get busy taking it all back. Maybe the most insidious thing is social distancing has put electronic devices between all of us. Many if not most of our communications have been over such devices, but now they are for those ordered to shelter in place… their only means. Which gives the government, (NSA) or any other hacker sufficiently adroit, to monitor everything said. Not just a portion, but everything, by everyone… not at all dystopian.

How this all plays out, we’ll have to wait and see, but it is best to use it as a learning experience. Some people won’t learn, others will, and still others will wake up for a moment then go right back to sleep. Lulled by the drone of daily life once everything gets back to normal. If we can bring back some critical manufacturing to the US, break the back of “higher education,” and jar enough people out of their complacency, the lot of mankind will have been improved. If we act with intent, to make this turn out to be a benefit, it will. So, instead of becoming irrational, angry and destructive, let’s pull together, grow as a people and make the world a better place because of this virus… released upon the world by a careless or criminal Chinese Marxist government.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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On The Crono Stimulus.

Posted on March 25, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, government money always has strings, and those strings are often more like fly paper. It appears the government is going to “give” us $1,200 each, bailout the airlines, provide loans to business and save the world from the Kung Flu, in an 889 page document, filled with pork, fly paper and wrapped up like a pig in a poke. Governments around the planet and across time have used the public purse to get things done, that otherwise couldn’t get done. Typically, usurpation. Attracted to the sweet looking paper, the people will see the “stimulus” as a life saver. Especially those unfortunate ones put out of work by this panic. What it will end up doing is transferring huge amounts of money from savers and workers to spendthrifts and layabouts.

A pig in a poke is an old adage, that means to buy something you didn’t expect, Caveat Emptor, or buyer beware. We are being sold on this “stimulus package” by the money we will be getting from the government. That sounds great, who doesn’t want money! Like the guy in Idiocracy said, “I like money…” But where is the money coming from that the government is “giving” us? It is either taxed from us, mostly by the payroll tax, else it is printed by the Federal Reserve, then loaned at interest to the government to give to us. Now that first way shows clearly that we are not being given money… but a liability. One we will have to pay back in the future, plus interest, overhead, shipping and handling. The second way, once you understand it, is truly diabolical.

The second way, by printing it, loaning it to a bank then the bank buying government bonds, doesn’t seem so clearly diabolical at first glance. Unless one is aware of economic history. The dollar is a fiat currency, it isn’t backed by gold or silver, it is backed by the full faith of the Federal Reserve, a private company that protects the banks, one that pretends to be a government organization. That means the dollar has elasticity. Unlike a metal backed currency, a fiat currency, like the Greenbacks, of the US revolution, are only based on the number in circulation. To print and buy government bonds is called monetization of debt. It has a long and storied history of destroying nations. There is a story of Wiemar Germany, if you bought a beer, by the time you finished it… the next one was more expensive.

The take and give, or print borrow and give, are both sufficient to prove the pig in a poke allegation, but there is more. All those loans to “help” come with some pretty sticky strings. The nationalization of the airline industry. Any airline that takes out a loan will have to allow Uncle Sam as a silent owner. Since every airline will need loans to stay afloat, voila, The airline industry is nationalized. No muss no fuss. That is some very adhesive tape. Corporations will not be able to buy back shares, (embezzlement as far as I am concerned) or pay dividends, (the only reason to invest in a company if you ask me). Don’t worry though, rest assured, politically favored CEOs will get their bonuses and perks, it will just be the pensioners, IRAs and savers who take the hit, in losing their dividends.

Government never wants to let a crisis go to waste. This one is no exception. The progressive faction will do everything it can to use the panic to limit the power of the people and grow theirs. Remember, there are progressives on both sides of the aisle. The naked power grab of nationalizing the airlines is one step in the direction progressives, and socialists would like to take us. The real prize though is to use this crisis to create the next one. That way there is always another crisis to exploit, so progressives can move the ball down the field, ever closer to utopia. It is a very long shot, since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, but hyperinflation is always possible, once people lose faith in their currency, As Germans did in the Mark in the 1930s. Now that is a pig in a poke!

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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University Education?

Posted on March 22, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, truth tellers want their message out in the light of day, both so others can hear it and be swayed, as well as to test it’s veracity. A concept is tempered in the arena of ideas. They are forged and hardened by argument, consideration and insight. For any idea to be compelling it must have something good about it. That good sounding thing may, sadly, electroplate arsenic. Such can only be discovered if the idea is scratched at by society as a whole. Moreover, if someone has an idea that is solid through and through, they want it discoverable by everyone, to sway them. On the other hand, those who are selling dross, would seek to keep their ideas, teaching and actual proselytizing, hidden and targeted. So… why would university professors worry about their lectures becoming public?

If a truth is indeed truth, it can withstand the eyes of many. In fact, I believe it was the inventor of Linux, Linus Corvallis who said, given enough eyes any flaw becomes obvious. He of course was talking about code, but that same insight holds true of ideas as well. Unlike code, that must go through registers, gates and down buses, proving it clean or flawed… ideas are run on the complex system of humanity, economics, culture and under the operating system of the pathological order. This is no great secret. Those most learned among us must know this, if I do, so one would think that if they want to purge their ideas of flaws, they would expose them to the eyes of the world? Cleaning their concepts of bad code so they can run perfectly in the morass of humanity.

Pragmatically, if an idea is sent through the complex system of humanity multiple times, and it always produces calamity, resulting in millions of deaths, gulags, oppression and want, one would have to deem that idea, bad. If one is pragmatic, that socialism is a bad idea since it has always led to disaster, is the only conclusion possible. Pragmatism is why you don’t throw good money after bad, you cut your losses, keep friends out of your business… and you don’t give government unlimited power. Now, one could argue, why didn’t people see that socialism would lead to such terrible outcomes, if Linus Corvallis was correct? Well, they did. Edmond Burke called it, and is hated to this day for being right. Showing the pathological nature of human governance fights the truth… even after it’s proven.

If you believe in what you are saying, you want others to hear to convince them of that truth, and thus improve their life outcomes. That which is truth, when known understood and practiced, always improves life outcomes, and those who are human hearted seek to improve the lives of others. Because it is manifestly obvious that the improvement in the lives of others, added up, results in the improvement of everyone’s, and therefore ours as well. On the other hand, if you are indoctrinating and manipulating people into self harm, you would want your manipulations, lies, and conniving, hidden from the world. Those engaging in manipulation of people into self harm must follow a different philosophy. Destroying the life outcomes of others gives the worthless a sense of self worth.

There is a news story going around, that the Wuhan Coronavirus, the Kung Flu has caused colleges and universities to go online, to practice social distancing. Several professors have voiced concern that “right wing” websites could get a hold of their lectures and post them. Personally, I would love it if a left wing website posted my articles, so if you run a left wing website, please feel free to reproduce my articles, in their entirety and unedited. These university professors worry that exposing their lectures to the world could undermine their “lessons” to the youth. This could only be done if their lessons contain manipulations or deceptions. I would hate to think multitudes of people are taking on unforgivable debt, to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars, only to give the worthless a sense of self worth.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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US China Relations

Posted on March 18, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, the relationship between the US and China, could be set up so that both nations benefited optimally, but that can never happen with a Marxist one party state in charge of China. If, on the other hand, the government of Taiwan were to become the government of mainland China, the trading relationship could be set up so that the next century at least, would have high and rising standards of living… in both China and the US. That is because the government of Taiwan is not expansionist nor is it authoritarian. That difference between the Maoist state that is totalitarian at it’s core, and the Taiwanese state that has adopted the same principles of government as the US founders, is night and day for the interests of the people and the relationship with it’s neighbors.

Mainland China has to pay for some pretty hefty sins. The one child policy, for example, that aborted millions of children, at the demand of the government. That policy has led to an upside down pyramid demographic. As Peter Zeihan says, “because that is the way math works…” They cannot become a consuming society for at least two decades at the minimum and probably much longer. They must therefore export the surplus goods of their economy, else it will collapse like a house of cards. Moreover, China has few natural resources, other than rare earths, and so it is reliant on outside sources for it’s energy needs. Natural gas is the most efficient fuel today, yet the Chinese burn coal, because gas is not available in sufficient quantities, but the US is awash in the stuff. A natural partner.

The US has an insatiable demand for goods. Americans didn’t care where they were made, just that they worked and and are not dangerous. That demand, along with the US guaranteeing safe passage anywhere on the planet’s navigable ocean waters, allowed China to export. If the US stopped patrolling the waterways, China would instantly have to create a deep water navy… to protect it’s energy imports and it’s exports. Even the Chinese investments in Africa to secure access to natural resources would become irrelevant should the US pull up stakes. Since the Maoist government of China is intent on expanding, thus endangering the very paradigm that has allowed it to thrive… this shows it cannot ever be a partner, only an adversary. Unlike Taiwan or Japan which have limited governments.

When power is concentrated in the hands of a few, and those few are unaccountable to the people, as the Chinese Maoist government is, it can pass all sorts of very disastrous policies the people are forced to suffer. The Chinese Maoist rulers at the time thought it was a good idea to lower the population, so, after they killed forty five million by starvation during Mao’s lifetime, they decided it would be a good idea to tell people how many children they can have… at the point of a gun. The one child policy was birthed. Maoist China invaded Tibet in the fifties and is eradicating Tibetan culture as I write this, no different than the Muslims did Egyptian culture, after they conquered it. As long as there is a totalitarian government in mainland China, it will engage in crimes against humanity, it is their nature.

That mainland China is still ruled by Maoists is a tragedy for the human race. It certainly has been for the people of China, Mongolia, Tibet and others under the jack boot. Not just the tens of millions starved to death, beaten, shot and used for spare parts, but the untold millions of babies aborted, shows that regime cannot be trusted by their own people, let alone humanity. That is sad because if China were ruled by sane people, limited in power, the US and China would complement each other perfectly. US LNG, food and natural resources could flow freely to China while finished products could flow to the US. Everyone would get rich. That can never happen while an expansionist Maoist regime rules China. Japan was once a mortal enemy, now a vital ally, let’s pray it doesn’t take a war this time.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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It’s Time to Panic… or Not

Posted on March 15, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, it’s time to panic, completely freak out, set your house on fire, get a shopping cart and load it with toilet paper, then hide behind the seven eleven… or not. From the headlines in the papers, and to hear the talking heads on TV, mindless panic is the only rational response to this extremely bad cold that is going around. Every news site I peruse is wall to wall doom porn. Basketball is not being played, (or at least the audiences are home watching on TV), the economy is going to crash, (even though the stores are packed with people shoulder to shoulder buying toilet paper and hand sanitizer), and everyone will get it within a month, (even though the spread has been arrested in China and South Korea, and it isn’t spreading in Australia or South America). Clearly, it’s time to light our hair on fire.

I have always advocated for people to keep at least a month’s worth of food on hand. Even if it is just survival food. Because, those who do, don’t have to go shoulder to shoulder during a pandemic, in a frantic hunt for hand sanitizer. We have plenty of bar soap at home. If a natural disaster hit, the people with food in their pantries give humanity some elasticity to disaster. The food supply doesn’t immediately run out, the fuel supply is less volatile and there is plenty of toilet paper to go around. How many people who have extra in their homes for emergencies, do you suppose, are fighting hand to hand over a roll of toilet paper today? A little preparedness gives a person a great deal of calm… in the face of the media and elite demanding we all have a communal conniption fit.

Those who keep so little in their homes that in an emergency… they would starve to death before the day is over, have reason to panic. The mindset that goes along with having nothing in reserve lends itself to a thoughtless reliance on the system. If your life is totally dependent on the system, any hiccup in it, and you better flip out. If on the other hand, you are even a little bit self reliant, snafus, epidemics and recessions are far less terrifying. Being totally reliant on a system, they have no idea how it works or the mechanisms that run within it, makes someone dependent. These are the people most easily manipulated into self harm for the benefit of psychopathic elite. You see them at the stores today, going toe to toe over a sanitary napkin.

Of course this could lead to the extinction of the human race, which is the scenario that is being considered the most likely by the media today, but the better bet, is that it will not. Ebola and SARS, were far more scary than this bad cold. Which could follow the same course as the 1918 pandemic, a mild version goes around in the spring and the following fall the deadly strain ravages humanity. Although the 1918 pandemic had little long term effect even on the war. To rationally justify the amount of panic and fear that is being promoted, this must be far far worse. Then again, to bet against the human race is always a lose lose proposition. Like Pascal’s Wager… because if you bet for our extinction, who will pay off the bet? If you bet on our survival, if the bet can be paid off, it will be.

The one thing about a panic, is that those who don’t, can scoop up tons of deals. During the depression, bankers who kept their heads became the next generation of uber rich, the traders who held onto intrinsically valuable stocks came out ahead, and the people who bought up the land of their neighbors at fire sale rates, expanded their farms. The secret is to have some extra set aside, so that in the case of panics, you don’t, and can take advantage. Moreover, by doing so, you help stem the panic, saving those dependent on the system much sweat and tears. Today is no different than all the panics that have come before. It is an opportunity as much as a disaster, and this may not even be a disaster at all. So, take advantage of the deals as best you can, but be careful not to buy flashy tulip bulbs.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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On the Concentration of Crucial Manufacturing

Posted on March 13, 2020 by john

Dear Friends,

It seems to me the height of absurdity to concentrate the manufacture of antibiotics in one nation, let alone compound it by concentrating that production in an expansionist empire. The susceptibility of that crucial supply to natural disaster is increased as the area it is manufactured decreases. Moreover, that an expansionist empire has seized the monopoly on it’s fabrication, gives that expansionist empire an ace. How do you go to war with the people that make your antibiotics? That, in and of itself is suicidally stupid, but as it turns out, China is the world’s pharmaceutical supplier as well! Got High Blood Pressure? No soup for you! Along with everything else made there… If, God forbid, a real disaster, far more destructive than coronavirus were to hit China, the world would be out of luck.

China is the world’s factory because of it’s political stability and the laissez faire regulatory environment. In China, it is easy to start a business, get a loan to buy plant or equipment and the tax system is conducive to capital use. It is, however, difficult to go to church, have an opinion or defend yourself… but that is a different topic for a different blog. The cost of labor has also been historically low. Now, these are great things for an economy, but add in the government requires foreign businesses, as a condition of doing business in China, hand over their Intellectual Property, (IP), then passed to their Chinese competitors, that is a winning hand. An entrepreneur will not hand over IP they created, but a corporate psychopath CEO will gut the company he runs for an extra buck, all day long.

The ironic thing is… the only reason China has been able to become the manufacturer for the world, is because of the US hegemony since WWII. According to Peter Zeihan, the US cobbled up a coalition to fight the Cold War, by bribing it together. Part of the bribe was that the US would protect the sea lanes, and allow everyone access to everyone else’s goods, products, services and natural resources. Upending the prior paradigm of colonial nations vying for natural resources against each other… usually at gunpoint. This new system has allowed China to get past the First Island Chain that has historically enclosed China. That is why China seeks to control the South China Sea as a national lake, and then most of the First Island Chain… to plan for the post US paradigm.

Wuhan Coronavirus has shown us the danger of concentrating the world’s manufacturing in one place. If it had been an asteroid that hit Wuhan we wouldn’t be talking about temporary disruptions in supply chains. It is common sense not to concentrate manufacturing of anything crucial in one place. How many people are saved every day by antibiotics? We will never know, but we do know they save billions, if not trillions of dollars in hospital stays. If that supply was cut off for a few months, let alone forever, the toll on humanity, and economically would be profound. To a lesser degree, the Rare Earth minerals are only mined and processed in China, along with so much else… that if China were devastated today, the world would be shunted back half a century or more, technologically.

The argument China is ruled by an expansionist one party state becomes redundant. The answer is not to vilify China, they have acted in their own self interest, their rulers have no obligation to act in the world’s. Not by their world view. The first thing to do is recognize the predicament we are in. The second is to formulate a plan to get out… then take action. The central part of that plan should be to claw back some manufacturing, of at least crucial products like antibiotics, back to the West. To do that, Western leaders need to cut regulations, so plants can be built or even restarted, stop keeping zombie corporations alive, apply law equally no matter which party has political favor, put restrictions on transferring IP, etc… Start making things in the US, Russia and Europe again.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

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