It seems to me, Ukraine’s situation is rapidly deteriorating, impoverishing it’s citizens and pushing the breakaway areas with war and the threat of war. What a sad state of affairs for people who, because of their geologic location, have taken it on the chin over and over. The political system is broken beyond repair with whomever is in power crushing any opposition at will. There is no effective protections for freedom of speech, assembly or conscience. The people of Ukraine deserve much better. Every nation on the planet could learn a thing or two, how not to run a country, from Ukraine’s example. There are answers to the thorny problems Ukraine faces, but unfortunately, real solution are being ignored for war and arbitrary power.
Ukraine’s history is one of invasion, violence and tyranny. From the dawn of history Ukraine has been invaded by empire makers. The Mongol invasions were particularly hard on the people, with whole cities raised to the ground, every man woman and child killed, even the dogs, cats and livestock! Tamerlane slaughtered the Ukrainian people with the glee of a demon. When the Soviet union controlled Ukraine, Stalin stole the food the Ukrainians had grown themselves, selling it on the world market, starving to death millions of human beings! The poor Ukrainian people have suffered for centuries under the heavy hand of sadistic invaders and despots. It is past time for those sturdy people to have a measure of freedom and prosperity.
President Petro Pososhenco continues in the footsteps of the man he deposed. Instead of ushering in an era of peace and prosperity he has turned to war and autocracy. While it is only human to want revenge for grievances suffered, when a politician does it, the lot of the whole people is lowered. Today the Ukrainian central bank is broke with all of Ukraine’s gold stolen. The war with separatists sporadically flaring up, and now with US lethal aid going to Ukraine, the likelihood of a shooting war with Russia becomes a real possibility. Crimea is lost to Russia, for now, and the Eastern cities are in the hands of separatists, which would be a blow to any sovereign nation. Sadly, Ukraine is used to blows, and is likely punch drunk.
A better option, in my humble opinion, would be to sign a peace accord granting the breakaway areas autonomy, as long as they don’t formally become part of Russia. This would stop the bleeding, both of human blood and economic red ink. War is never a good option especially when there is an alternative. Of course it take two for peace and only one for war, with the Russian Ruble in free fall, the Russian people looking at hyper inflation and the Russian economy collapsing, war becomes more probable, since war is a traditional way to make patriots of starving people. Nothing rallies a people like a rip snorting war. Granting the breakaway areas autonomy would take the possibility of outright war off the table.
The next thing Ukraine should do is get their political house in order. To that end, I have advocated for all nations, including Ukraine, a NUMA or Fourth Branch. It would chain the lawmakers to their own laws and Constitutional limits. Of course the Fourth Branch option would require a Constitutional rewrite. If done right such a rewrite would have many beneficial effects. The US Constitution should be the basis of any new Ukrainian Constitution… with the addition of a NUMA. A Constitution that strictly limits the role, scope and power of government, would allow the free market to do it’s thing. For a better explanation see an excerpt from my last blog here.
If these two things were done Ukraine’s economy would start flourishing. The Ukrainian people are smart, hard working and risk takers, all of which are essential to a rapidly growing economy. Until the war is ended, and the government retreats to it’s rightful role, the Ukrainian economy cannot possibly get on solid footing. If the economy of Ukraine becomes dynamic, the gross domestic product per person would skyrocket, or in other words, the Ukrainian people would see prosperity they could have only dreamed of before. Once that happens the breakaway areas will almost certainly petition the Ukrainian government to allow them back in. Self interest trumps all other considerations. Ukraine could slowly rebuild itself without the exigencies and ruin that protracted wars always bring on. This would be a peace and prosperity based solution to the fundamental problems of Ukraine. Wise leaders would take the path of peace and prosperity, while foolish ones, war and poverty… Let’s pray the leaders of Ukraine are wise and not foolish.