It seems self evident to me that a thing that has happened in the past is possible in the future. To argue otherwise is to argue history has no meaning and empirical evidence cannot be relied upon. This would require all science and knowledge to be thrown out logically. Since this is not possible then what has happened in the past is possible in the future. Both to the good and to the bad.
A good set of examples are the peaceful revolutions of the Eastern Bloc. The Velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia and the Solidarity movement in Poland were peaceful and led to stable republics. Even the nationalist breakup of Czechoslovakia into the Check Republic and the Slovak Republics were peaceful and led to little bloodshed. They are shining examples of how to move from a tyranny to a Republic.
Bad examples have been far more plentiful. From the revolutions in South America that led to “President’s for life” through revolutions that led to communist governments that murdered millions of their citizens to revolutions that ushered in theocratic regimes, with an end times philosophy that they shout from the rooftops, but the rest of the world is too scared to face and turn their heads in shame and willful ignorance.
Revolution usually means the ushering in of a new tyrant instead of replacing him with a true republic. The new tyrant is afraid, that the public outcry that brought him into power might oust him as well, and is vicious in keeping the people sufficiently down, to prevent this from happening. Then the people are shoved from mere tyranny, into being subject to the whims of a panicked despot, terrified of his people and willing to do anything as a result.
History shows us that when there is not a viable oppositions party the government devolves into tyranny. In the worst case scenario the government devolves to Lebanon in the 1980’s or Somalia today. In these cases we see the result of factions who are not interested in the good of society but only their own good. Willing to do any amount of harm to others to get their desires met, they show themselves to be the worst kind of child… The screaming brat. They scream at the injustice they feel and mete out far worse injustice on others without batting an eye. The people who control these factions are evil incarnate.
When historical conditions and decisions are revisited the results are always the same. For the good or for the bad it is the people who suffer the most. Possibly because the people are a blunt weapon in the war of tyrannical politics. Too blunt to force their will but powerful enough that no tyrant can stand it for long. This blunt weapon is perfect for the use of a potential tyrant. The potential tyrant convinces the people or at least a small cadre that they will be a benevolent tyrant and will serve the people… As fodder.
But if a new means were employed necessarily a new outcome would occur. If we add vinegar to soda then a chemical reaction occurs that boils over the container. But if we mix neutral water in the soda then we get a different reaction. It may seem like we must immediately change from base to neutral but that may cause negative side effects and this is exactly what we have been talking about. Changing an input to a situation changes the outcome.
What if, in cases where the people are fed up with a tyrant who has been in power for 30 years, what the people really need is a NUMA. A branch of government that is powerful enough to force the tyrant to follow his own laws. Chain the tyrant and he becomes a dog. Placid and protective. Unchained and roaming in packs, tyrants are subject to rabies and can turn on their masters, (the people). Dogs and tyrants require a chain. The best chain for tyrants, both benevolent and malevolent, is the NUMA.