Dear Friends,
It seems to me that the new war between Russia and Georgia is a modern example of power politics in action.
Russia is acting beyond the modern international norm. In entering internationally recognized Georgian territory, without an International mandate, UN or otherwise, supposedly to “protect the ethnic Russians,” Russia has entered into a war of aggression. To compound the crime Russia has now passed the boarder of the territory in question. It continues into the territory of Georgia. In doing this, in so blatant a fashion, Russia is announcing to the world “We care nothing for your International Laws… Because we have the power to care nothing!”
And they do. Europe depends on natural gas from Russia’s Gazprom. Winter is fast approaching and Europeans need heat. Russia has them by the… ear. Asia is dominated by communist China. China has similar ambitions itself, so it would like Russia to set the president and take the heat for it. South America has not the military or economic might to have a real say, the same with Africa. The United States Of America is the only one left.
Here we are again. The US is spending treasure and blood in the Middle East to protect the worlds interests. Like it or not. With little help from our “Allies.” The US is hated worldwide for it. The US military has returned the Georgian contingent from Iraq to Georgia, directly, by military air transport. However the US has little real substantive power to act in this situation, without substantive consequences… Other than stomping it’s feet and holding it’s breath.
This conflict has eerie echoes of the Bosnian conflict. In Bosnia, Serbia interceded to protect ethnic Serbs from Bosnian aggression. In this case however, the stakes are much higher, to the balance of world power.
I think that Russia has in its gun sights the energy recourses of Georgia. Protecting some ethnic Russians is a pretext to resume it’s control of Georgia. This would help Russia in several ways. The resources of Georgia would be in the control of Russia. The threat (as Russia sees it) of a NATO member on it’s Black Sea boarder is removed. The power of the EU is curtailed in a very substantive way. (Total inability to act). And Finally the retaking of Georgia will send a chilling message to other potential former Republics.
The international condemnation will be loud… and as powerful as a zephyr. We shall see what level of autonomy Russia gives Georgia… if it emerges victorious from this conflict. Which is not a sure thing, yet. Remember some of the Georgian troops are battle hardened in Iraq. History shows, over and over, a small republic that has a smaller more professional army has overturned a much larger army of conscripts.Perhapse Georgia can battle Russia to a stalemate, and sate both sides thirst for blood.
If that happens, Russia’s prestige / power will be greatly diminished… Perhaps this could be more dangerous than a Russian victory…
