Dear Friends,
It seems to me, with the death of Nelson Mandela, the future of South Africa is in jeopardy. This was of course inevitable when that great man died, but now that his mortality is manifest, it is incumbent upon the forward looking to foresee what the results of his passing will be on the nation he loved. His Christian faith tempered his actions and thereby the actions of the African National Congress (ANC). Without his humanity at the helm, or at least mitigating the various political factions vying for power there, I am afraid South Africa will now start down the well trod path of oppression and violence.
It is interesting that South Africa went a different way than did it’s neighbors. When Rhodesia gained it’s independence it fell under the spell of socialism and retaliation. The white farmers were attacked in their homes, their land seized by the government and redistributed to poor blacks. The result of these policies of retribution and redistribution were universally bad. The country splintered and what had been the bread basket of Africa descended into world renowned poverty. To this day Zimbabwe, and Zambia are poster children of how to destroy a country and it’s economy.
That South Africa didn’t follow the path of it’s neighbors is a testament to Nelson Mandela. He mitigated the natural human instinct for revenge and instead channeled it to peace and reconciliation. The results speak for themselves. South Africa has the highest GDP of any sub Saharan African nation and continues to grow, albeit at a limited pace, due to structural problems related to regulation, taxation and political favor. As long as Mandela lived his cult of personality kept South Africa on the path of peace and prosperity. His demand for reconciliation further enhanced the wealth of South Africans.
The death of Nelson Mandela will result in a power vacuum. All the heretofore limited political players in South Africa will struggle for supremacy. Without Mandela’s Christian moderation I believe South Africa will descend to the atrocities that characterized it’s neighbors. The communist party is strong there and will now start to exert it’s political power. Power that was kept in check by Mandela. Communists brooch no sharing of power and will happily use violence to gain total supremacy. If the history of communism shows us nothing else it shows us this. It may take a year or two but political upheaval will result in violence.
Political violence never comes without cost. The fragile economy of South Africa, that was largely held together by Mandela, will collapse under the weight of the coming political upheaval. While the poorest have not gain much under the ANC’s rule they have at least not starved. When civil war breaks out famine will rear it’s ugly head. Communists care nothing for the predicament of the poor or workers. Communists, (the New Class), care only about their own political power. So the plight of the people will not effect their calculations one iota. Except to exploit that suffering for political leverage.
I pray I am wrong and that clear heads will prevail but history is adamant. The death of Nelson Mandela will show the World the weakness of the South African constitution, you know, the one Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the US Supreme Court Judge… said would be a better example to follow for a new Republic, than the US model. The nation that great man worked so hard for, will be torn asunder by the same political forces that destroyed Rhodesia, Angola, and Mozambique, with the same results… poverty, oppression, civil war and famine. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s comments not withstanding.
Sincerely,
John Pepin
