Dear Friends,
It seems to me that his Arab Spring has taken some alarming turns. Changes in the apparent nature of the collective movements that signal a situation that will become more unstable not less unstable. This is very concerning to each and every one of us because it has implications, not only for World prosperity but more importantly, World peace.
The Arab people are perfectly well suited to living in a liberal democratically represented republic. The philosophy that they have lived under is not compatible with a liberal democratically represented republic however. The cultural ethos is that of a tribal/feudal system. So while there is no deficiency in the people whatsoever their philosophy is at odds with liberal democracy, which is the siren call of the unbiased media.
In Egypt events have traveled in a decidedly illiberal direction. Calls to quit the peace treaty with Israel are growing in frequency and amplitude. Calls for war with Israel are becoming more mainstream in Egyptian society than ever before. I remember what Machiavelli said about democracy, “A stable tyranny is better for the middle class than an unstable democracy.” Because in an unstable democracy there is no safety or security in one’s person or property but in a stable tyranny it is only the aristocracy that are actually tyrannized. In this context the average people of Egypt have gone from a stable tyranny to an unstable democracy. One that is becoming more unstable instead of less unstable.
Couple this with the fact that the largest and most violent demonstrations come directly after Friday Mosque says a lot about the root of the vine. With the rebellions in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, and elsewhere driven by radical clerics calling on the people to Jihad against their rulers, to what end do you suppose those radical clerics are working… a liberal democratically represented republic?
It should make us all wonder what is the goal is in Libya. We are told it is to unseat Moammar. But then what? To give Libya to the radical Islamic clerics who are ginning up the rebellions around the rest of the Islamic World? That is suicidal foolishness. But it looks like that is the actual policy of NATO. Without effective control of the ground air power can only smash and destroy. It cannot enact political change. It’s like using a sledge hammer to filigree a tin ceiling…
Combine all these things together and we have a building disaster on our collective hands. Growing in magnitude due to the demolishing of infrastructure in the effected countries and the growing anger at the deteriorating living conditions that the rebellions are creating in their societies. Anger and hunger are easily channeled into mindless violence by the evil among us.
Just as 18th century France rage at the Aristocracy and hunger fed into the French revolution, or the massacre of the peaceful demonstrations in Saint Petersburg by Tsar Nicolas led to the rebellion that eventually brought Lenin and the Bolsheviks to power with all the intendent bloodshed. These examples give us some warning signs to look for. Like, the execution of old leaders, total triumph of secularism over religion or the reverse, and lastly the wholesale changing of the modes of people’s lives (treating people like lab rats).
We see the beginnings of all these things happening in the Arab Spring. In Egypt, where perhaps, the rebellion has evolved the farthest, Hosni is under indictment along with most of the old ruling guard. The outcome keeps sliding down the slippery slope…
What is lacking in these countries that would allow for an actual liberal democratically represented republics, is a capitalistic ethos, it is unfortunately not trite to say. As the great thinkers of the Enlightenment concluded, market thinking pervades every aspect of our lives, making us measure and weigh the good and bad in every decision. This has the effect of making people pragmatic and tolerant.
It is not virtue to be tolerant in a feudal or tribal society. These types of societies must be tempered by the introduction of a functional market system, before it can be imagined that democracy can be thrust upon a people who have been conditioned, not to be pragmatic… Doing so insures the splintering of a society into hard core factions and all the violence that entails until a new strongman brings all the factions under control.
Remember what Aristotle said about democracy, “There are three right forms of government and three wrong forms of government, the three right forms are, monarchy, aristocracy and polity, the three wrong forms are, despotism, oligarchy and democracy… for democracy is the tyranny of the majority over the minority.”
Where there is no pragmatism there can be no polity. Even the most pragmatic people must alloy democracy within a republic…
