Posts Tagged ‘anti capitalist’

The Death of the US Constitution

Monday, February 15th, 2016

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, with the death of Antonin Scalia our Constitution, which has been on life support for so many years, is about to die as well. There are two main factions battling for the soul of the US, one is adamant that the Constitution and limited government must be conserved, the other, that our Constitution is an impediment in their desire to progress the US into a fully rationalized economy, unlimited government and a controlled populace. Both factions believe their way is best for everyone. The faction that believes in unlimited government, rationalized economy and controlled people has been moving the ball down the field for the whole of the twentieth Century. With the death of Scalia the faction that seeks to preserve limited government, a free market and liberty for the people has lost it’s last hold on the last instrument of protecting our Constitution and what it stands for. Once Obama has appointed another anti constitutionalist to the bench, you can count on a rapid slew of legislating from that bench, more ruling like Roe v Wade and a total loss of your Constitutional rights. They will be replaced, for awhile, by rights that are distributed by government.

Obama has already made a lasting impression on the Supreme Court. His picks have proven themselves to be uber partisans in gutting our Constitution and our Constitutional principles. Even when naked conflicts of interest, such as Sotomayor’s when ruling on the Affordable Care Act, Obama’s appointments have refused to rescind themselves. They have ruled until now, against the majority, that the Second Amendment does not confer a personal right to keep and bear arms, despite the obvious meaning of that amendment in the Bill Of Rights. Obama’s pick to replace Scalia will be another progressive who loathes our nation, it’s people, the free market and our Constitution. The erosion of our rights since the end of the Nineteenth Century can now go into overdrive.

The end of the Nineteenth Century saw the Presidency of Teddy Roosevelt. He was the first progressive, and in the political environment he was in, had to tread carefully. Even though, he instituted the National Park system, which allowed the Federal government to usurp the lands of private citizens for “wilderness areas.” The national park system, that has been so abused by the bureaucracy lately, has become a means for the government to abuse it’s citizens, like the Bundys and Hammonds. Teddy Roosevelt was the first President to make a real move to get the US away from it’s Constitutional bounds.

Woodrow Wilson made a complete break from constitutionally limited government. His rule was so obnoxious that when he was finished the country voted in Harding and Coolidge in a landslide. They returned the US to Constitutionally limited government, laissez faire economics and liberty for the people. Their Presidencies ushered in the period of the fastest economic growth of the Twentieth Century, the near total destruction of the Klu Klux Klan, lowering crime rates, and widespread prosperity. When Coolidge stepped down he was replaced by the progressive Hoover. Hoover went back to moving the US away from our Constitution, free markets and liberty with such policies as the Smoot Hawly act that collapsed international trade ushering in the Great Depression.

Franklin Roosevelt ran as a conservative but became a progressive tyrant in all but name. He took the reigns of the economy with policies controlling how much and what a farmer could plant on his own land, what retailers could charge for underwear and concentration camps for Americans of Japanese descent. Violating the unstated law that since Washington had been in place, FDR ran for a third term and became President for life. On his death the nation lurched back to constitutional rule, but each time our nation was pulled away from our Constitution, the step back was weaker and many of the ideas and policies of the progressives stayed. The Supreme court during the FDR administration ruled in Wickard v Filburn the government could control what, how much and when a farmer could plant dramatically increasing the power, scope and rch of the government.

Some will pin their hopes on the next election. Many believe that with the election of a constitutionalist, of which there are very few running, the nation can be returned to constitutionally limited government. Alas that is not the case. The Supreme Court has as it’s only responsibility to protect our Constitution and maintain limited government. With the control of the Supreme Court by progressives they will immediately take it upon themselves to gut our Constitution and it’s limits on government. The Court is stacked with young progressives who will serve life terms. The most the next President could do, is replace the few constitutionalists on the bench with others, but that will not effect the status quo. Moreover, since all lawyers are members of the new class, the likelihood of getting a constitutionalist from that group grows smaller with each passing day.

The new class today are the strongest advocates for the progressive faction, that sees our nation as an impediment to a world government, where the human race can be controlled by people who are much smarter than us, for our own good. Trained by the intellectuals who are uniformly of the Frankfurt school the new class intelligentsia run our schools, media, businesses, culture and government. An antipathy for limited government has been thoroughly inculcated into their very psyche. They will cheer the appointment of a progressive to the Supreme court, tipping the balance away from constitutionally limited government, free markets and liberty, and towards unlimited government, rationalized economy and controlled populace. With the control of the last bastion that limits government, the progressive faction can put the last nail in the coffin of our Constitution, once and for all. Wickard v Filburn is only a small taste of the poison that will come from the Supreme Court now. The death of Antonin Scalia is the death of liberty, free markets and limited government, your children will live in an Orwellian tyranny from which there will be no escape… regardless of who we elect next. Prepare for the coming tyranny as best you can.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

Argentina’s Election of Macri

Thursday, December 17th, 2015

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, Argentina is one profoundly corrupt nation, and that bodes ill for any possible economic prosperity. This isn’t news from the perpetual failure, Argentina, is no exception it is the rule. Argentina seems to have an ability to choose the wrong path as an intrinsic attribute. The corruption in it’s government is as legendary as is it’s economic failures. Argentina has become the poster child for everything wrong with modern government. Lately we have prosecutors found dead in their bathtubs, who have the audacity to write up criminal charges against the former President over collusion with Islamic terrorists from Iran to kill Jews, and is it a shock to anyone that the new prosecutor and the courts refuse to hear the case? Such endemic corruption would be unthinkable in a market based country, but Argentina is a socialist nation, and so such corruption is merely the way to do business, which is the future of any nation that chooses socialism. Argentina however, has just changed course, for how long no one can tell but electing a capitalist is a start.

In 1900 Argentina had the same GDP per person as the US. Since then Argentina has gone down the path to socialism in a big way. All governments like to hand out other people’s money, it makes the government appear generous without costing the elite that run it anything. Argentina has taken that strategy to a new level. Their healthcare system is open to anyone who needs healthcare from around the world. People flock to Argentina from all over South America to cash in on it which costs the Argentine people tons of money. The costs are paid for by the people through lower wages, lower standards of living and a shrinking middle class. The costs are born by the people and the benefits are given to the elite.

This year Argentina elected Mauricio Macri who ran on a platform of economic transformation. He claimed he will change the direction from socialism, which has failed so spectacularly in Argentina, to laissez faire. We will have to wait and see if he does, but that the Argentine people elected someone who will change course from socialism to capitalism, is encouraging. With it’s history of socialism and the outright destruction of the middle class through many bouts of hyper inflation is worry some however. It shows the people of Argentina will likely be expecting an immediate economic miracle, which after so many years of corruption and economic absurdity, will inevitably be slow, especially since Macri will have to fight against the entrenched bureaucracy.

The corruption became even more evident after Macri’s election. The record office had a suspicious fire, which destroyed all the records of who is owed what from the Argentine government, as well as all the pay offs and corruption of the last regime. Convenient eh? Then dozens of armored trucks left the Central bank will all the Argentine gold reserves and foreign reserves delivering them to waiting airplanes to be whisked out of the country to private accounts only God knows where. Such shenanigans highlight the results of socialist governments. Socialism is not for the benefit of the people but for the elite. The elite live like kings while they steal everything that is not nailed down.

The endemic corruption within the government will not just go away because a new president has been elected, it will need to be dug out and excised, like the cancer it is. How such a feat can be done with people who are corrupt themselves will be an enigma, unless Macri can somehow get the government and people to agree on a Constitutional amendment that establishes a NUMA. Drawn from people outside government such a branch could effectively root out the corruption that has so hobbled Argentina. Anything short of a NUMA would be smashed against a wall of corruption decades in the making.

Argentina has a long hard road ahead of it to get their economy and government functioning again. The new President Macri is facing an entrenched bureaucracy that will try mightily to stymie his every effort at reform, corruption in every nook and cranny of the government, a people anxious for results, and a media that is at best hostile to his reforms. He does have the benefit however of presiding over a nation that is rich in natural resources, has good access to the ocean, has an educated people willing to work, and fairly good infrastructure. We should pray for the people of Argentina, that Macri’s reforms do the trick and that Argentina puts its socialist past behind it. Not just for the Argentine people, but as an example for all the people in poor countries beset by socialism and corruption.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

The Coming of the Brave New World

Thursday, July 23rd, 2015

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, we have entered a time when up is down, good is bad and right is wrong. Today we have people who wield political power who believe… only some lives matter, they deny God, they allow lunatics who hate the US and the West to get nuclear weapons while disarming their own people, being pro abortion is a litmus test for holding office, government keeps track of every man woman and child’s race, historic monuments are being threatened with destruction, politically incorrect thoughts are outlawed, a certain flag is under threat of a ban, the two million year old institution of marriage has been redefined, the only nation in the Middle East that is free and democratic is the bad guy while those autocratic nations who stone women to death and sponsor terrorism are the good guys, every segment of the US government is buying ammo like the end times are here, our history is being changed, our traditions are being dismantled, politicians don’t even give lip service to our Constitution, children are taught sodomy instead of reading in the government monopoly school system, those who start businesses and hire people are vilified while those who are villains are glorified, a retired US general wants to intern people who the government considers “disloyal” to the government, even as five service members are murdered in a terrorist attack the President congratulates that religion, the President refuses to lower flags to half mast for those slain service members, even as the economy of the world gets closer to total bankruptcy and money printing has become the norm the price of gold and silver is manipulated down, politicians who are caught in direct violation of the law face no punishment while citizens who are caught in violation of the very same laws only to a much lesser extent are forced into psychotherapy, returning veterans and constitutionalists are considered terrorists and those who’s religion tells them to commit terror are not, banks create money out of thin air and charge interest on it while paying you nothing for your deposits on money you had to work for, veterans cannot get healthcare while the US gives immediate total healthcare for illegal immigrants, small business creation is negative for the first time in US history, the government doesn’t trust the military with guns… I could go on and on but I would like to address the issue somewhat.

There is only one possible outcome from all this lunacy, war, as well as a collapse of our economy, civilization and society. Such an outcome would/will be horrific in that it will usher in human suffering on a scale never before experienced, even at the depths of the Second World War. That result becomes more likely every day the craziness continues. Such a catastrophe would be a reset of human civilization. The new class, who are the repository of our economy, civilization and society, are the people who implement these things.

It is possible that the new class elite who run everything from the board rooms to the highest echelons of government are so stupid they do not understand good from evil or right from wrong. While we have to keep that as a possibility, the new class, by definition, are the intelligentsia, those with advanced college degrees. They have the benefit of the best education, the best standard of living, the best access to information and are the most powerful segment of society. The benefits of being in the new class are too numerous to tick off. They are the lawyers, judges, politicians, bureaucrats, professors, deans of our colleges, teachers, our Chief Executive Officers, bankers, reporters, editors of our news outlets, Hollywood executives, writers, Wall street traders, etc… The new class wields power over every aspect of our civilization, economy and society.

Since they have so much education, wealth and power it does seem odd they could be so imbecilic that they do not understand the natural outcomes of their own policies, policies that are so absurd as to make Don Quixote blush. So what other possibility could there be that they support and have implemented such folly? Could it be that they are not stupid at all? Is it possible that they know exactly what they are doing?

Since all people in the new class is educated in our colleges and universities, and those colleges and universities are run by people who subscribe to the Frankfurt school or are Fabian socialists, it is only logical they indoctrinate the students, the future members of the new class, into their philosophy. The Frankfurt school is based on the writings of Marx, Freud, and Nietzsche. The Fabian socialists believe that society needs to be heated up to the point of melting so they can reform it into a civilization closer to their hearts desire. Both are Marxist at their core. Moreover the Georgia Guide stones are a monument to the philosophical goals of those two philosophies.

In this context the actions of the new class become clear, they are not stupid in the classical sense, they know where their policies will take the human race. If that is true then they seek to destroy civilization so they can remake it closer to their hearts desire. The absurdity we see all around us is not meant to improve the lot of Mankind, at least not in the short term, they are to lower the lot of man to poverty, want and war. That way, people will scream for a new order, one they seek to foist on us without our acceptance or permission. They consider themselves to be much smarter than us hoi polloi and so our input is not wanted or needed. The new class is willing to create suffering and misery, to progress society to a new utopia, where everyone is a slave to the world government. They want to forge a Brave New World, complete with Alphas, Betas, Gammas and Epsilons, with their heirs being the alphas. They are willing to do what it takes to get what they want. As Lenin said, “You must break some eggs if you want to make an omelet.”

Sincerely,

John Pepin

The Fear of Our Own Imagination

Wednesday, May 13th, 2015

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, I have heard the argument that religion is the fear of Man’s imagination, if that argument has any merit at all, those who make it, should apply it to Anthropogenic climate change… because it fits far better. How many millions of dollars, Euros and Rubles each year go to investigate the projected effects of anthropogenic climate change, and in what universe does any flood of money not generate a huge incentive to promote the agenda? The government taxes us, they give some of the money to “scientists” to make dire predictions on what will happen, if they are not given dictatorial powers to stem Anthropogenic climate change. They gave up on global warming because it is becoming ever more clear the globe isn’t heating, just like they gave up on the coming ice age in the 1970’s, now it is anthropogenic climate change… because, they don’t know if the planet has a fever or is going hypothermic, nor do they know the reason it is, the one thing they do know for certain is… that you are causing it, and you need to give them absolute arbitrary power over you, to stop you, or else you might someday suffer from the ills the government paid people to predict, if the scientists that do the predicting ever break their perfect score of 100% failure.

Pick up any science based magazine and it cannot but stand out to you the amount of stories on climate change. Even in magazines on astronomy, where you wouldn’t expect Earth news, you will regularly have stories on climate change. Each of those stories is based on a research grant by either a public or private institution, costing millions of dollars and based on other research other scientists have done in those same institution’s behalf. If any magazine you pick up has that many articles on climate change then there is a tsunami of funding going into that research.

Whenever there is easy money to be had, especially where that money comes from government and is considered “free money,” people pile in to get their share of that free money. It is a quality of human beings that makes it so. With a pathetic job market for people with college education, and the huge debt load that education continues to cost them, the incentive to prove climate change is human caused so the agenda can move forward becomes an offer they can’t refuse. They get good pay to do research to prove climate change is real, it will be dire if the predictions come true or to direct attention to the fact it is a hoax to begin with.

The climate change hoax was proven a hoax when the IPCC emails became public where the IPCC discussed how to fudge facts, temps and sway public opinion, yes, the climate change alarmists would have you forget that little episode. Yet it remains in the public record. It takes a special kind of gullible, to remain gullible in the face of direct admissions of the hoax, by the hoaxers themselves. Those college educated people without jobs, who make up the unemployed faction of the new class, are just that gullible. Instead of thinking for themselves and looking at real history, they are so indoctrinated that socialism even dystopian socialism is an advancement over flawed capitalism, that they eat up anything those they consider authorities expel and give them.

A market economy’s main function is to improve access to, efficient use of and leverage to the service of humanity, energy. Almost any innovation in production, organization or efficiency follow this paradigm. In some way, if they are successful, they improve access to energy, the efficient use of energy, or to use energy to give people superhuman strength. Another attribute of a market economy is that it is a complex system. A complex system is adaptable. That means a market economy will adapt to changes in the availability of energy, unless the availability is controlled by a cartel or government entity.

Having control of energy is like having control of the throttle in a machine. He who controls the throttle of a machine controls how fast it spins and how much work it can do. The one dimensional thinkers who make up the new class believe that is how their absolute arbitrary control of energy would work. Along with the arbitrary rule over every other aspect of our lives, for our own good of course, would enable them to implement the socialist utopia, or dystopia, since the mechanism of humanity is a complex system and not a machine, control of which must lead to inefficiencies resulting in general poverty.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

You Cannot Control or Plan an Economy, It Can Only Be Ridden…

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, an economy is an organic thing, like a horse or a flock of birds, as such it cannot be controlled it can only be ridden. Control is a science and riding is an art. Science can only be applied in a scientific, (controlled) setting. An art can be plied in the real world, where everything is messy, and where “control” is a relative term. This is one of the fundamental reasons communism and socialism cannot work with human beings. Socialism and communism require an economy to be controlled. An economy cannot be controlled. Whenever someone tries, the economy explodes, destroying lives, fortunes and families.

The economy of even a tiny nation or city state, is far too complex to be tightly controlled, and if control is attempted, a long tailed event always occurs, destroying the economy. The random inputs to even a small fruit business are too many to be controlled. A small business person will tell you that he or she does everything possible to control costs, monitor employees and maintain quality, while satisfying the customer, but that it is impossible to control everything. That is where intuition and experience come in, a business cannot be controlled it must be managed, or in other terms, ridden.

Riding a horse is an art, as is, managing a business, herding cattle, painting a picture and running a government. What do arts have in common? All these endeavors seek only a portion of control. They take elements that are disparate, and keep just enough dominance over them that those elements work together, but not so much it breaks the system. If a cowboy tried to control every single cow, the herd would immediately scatter, if the rider tried to control the placement of the horse’s feet, the horse would quickly fall, if a manager tried to micro manage every action of every employee, the business would rapidly fail, an art requires domination of that which can be mastered and accepting that those elements that cannot be mastered will look after themselves. Only those things that can be completely manipulated with absolute mastery over every input and reaction can be controlled, everything else must be ridden.

To control something one must have a way to control any unforeseen exigency. In a complex system control is impossible because there is no way to have a mechanism in place to deal with any possible emergency. The universe of potential emergencies are too vast to be thought of let alone controlled for. Only when someone has total power over every facet of a system, process or reaction, can he or she be said to control it, and even that level of control is subject to God’s laws. In fact that is the scientific method. It is the way scientists have gleaned out the nuances of God’s laws in Physics, Mathematics, and Chemistry… Economics, sociology, psychology and even history are pseudo sciences and while subject to God’s laws they escape humanity’s grasp due to their complexity.

A pseudo science is a field of study that approximates a science but in fact is an art. History for example is written by the victors and as such cannot be a perfect illustration of the facts. A Periodic Table of the Elements would not be science if large portions of it said, “Dragons be made of this…” It would not be chemistry it would be alchemy. Chemistry is a science where alchemy is mere pseudo science. Economics cannot be a science in the true sense until sociology, psychology and a whole slew of other pseudo sciences become real sciences, because economics depends on them for many of it’s theories and assumptions, if an assumption is that “dragons be made of this,” then it is not scientific. Someday, economics may become a science but until then, it is only a pseudo science approximating science.

And so, if all the inputs, the wants, reactions, fears, hopes, desires, knowledge, work ethic, illness, cheating husbands and wives, etc… for every human being in existence cannot be controlled, an economy cannot be controlled. What is the next best thing then, if we don’t want a chaotic economy that doesn’t do what we want it to? To ride it, control what we can and accept that which we cannot, set the parameters and incentives such that most of the economic actors stay in the herd, go after the strays and bring them back into the fold, establish standards, eliminate micro managing regulations, and accept the truth that total control of the economy or in other words, the planned economy, is impossible. Only when we give up trying to control our economies and instead ride them, can we have better functioning economies that do what we all want them to do, create widespread prosperity, keep our nation’s militarily strong, (to protect that wealth), and provide a rising standard of living to our children and their children.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

The Impending Japanese Economic Implosion

Thursday, November 13th, 2014

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is both strangling his nation’s economy while he forces food down it’s throat. The Japanese Central bank’s decision to monetize their debt is a sure path to economic asphyxiation. The side of the road of history is littered with the wreckage of economies that have tried that hocus pokus. Abe is choking his economy with high taxes, and is planning on raising taxes even more, while he destroys their currency! Japan has endured a Keynesian driven depression for over a decade. Each political party more in love with the welfare state than the other. If Japan wants to remain an economic powerhouse, and thereby it’s standard of living, it must turn away from coddling super giant businesses, and unleash the dragon of entrepreneurship. That would save his economy and restore prosperity to Japan, or France, Ukraine, Greece, Argentina, Venezuela, etc…

It is like the ancient proverb about the old farmer. At the end of the day an old farmer came into the house covered with dirt. His son asked him where the Old Farmer had been all day. “I have been out helping the corn grow.” Replied the old farmer. The son ran out to find the old farmer had pulled up all his corn. Like the old farmer Abe is trying too hard to “help” his economy grow. Instead of printing huge sums of money for the government to spend, the Japanese central bank should be buying gold, strengthening their currency to protect the people’s wealth. Instead of following the example of Switzerland the Japanese are following the example of Argentina.

Argentina has gone through more than one episode of hyper inflation and are headed to another. The middle class in Argentina has been hollowed out by repeated rounds of economy crushing monetary calamity. They have monetized their debt which has always led to hyper inflation. Monetizing a nation’s debt is basically printing money for government to spend. It is usually done by the central bank buying it’s government’s bonds. This cycles the money through the crony banks on it’s way to the government’s checkbook.

Switzerland has always protected it’s currency and has always had a good standard of living coupled with low inflation. The Swiss middle class is healthy. On November 30 the Swiss are going to the polls to decide if they are going to force their central bank to buy gold and repatriate their expatriate gold. That would have the effect of increasing the level of gold backing of the Swiss Franc while also protecting the nation’s gold from third party adverse incentives. Japan would be well advised to strengthen their currency, keep it stable even to the point of deflation, than ruin the credit of the nation as a whole.

When Japan started down the rabbit hole of Keynesian deficit spending, they had a government surplus, now they have a decade of no growth and more than twice their GDP in government debt. Instead of squandering all that money on Keynesian demand side “stimulus” they should have spent it on funding supply side entrepreneurs. More businesses require more employees. The redundancy of labor among many smaller businesses drives up the demand for labor and thus wages. New products that flood into a society during times of rapid innovation, from many entrepreneurs adding to the economic aggregate, improve the standard of living of everyone in those societies. High and rising wages drives up demand, exponentially more than any government program, which can only take from someone who earned it, so they can’t spend or save it. The government then simply throws that hard earned money into the fire of inefficiency that is government spending.

Raising taxes in an already highly taxed nation is insane. Japan is the poster child for crony capitalism. It is highly taxed and regulated, suffocating entrepreneurs with regulations and taxes. All of which is done to protect super giant businesses from competition. Economy of scale is true when it comes to brute force manufacturing, but not in the creation of new products, ways of organizing a business or making existing products more effective. The ability of a small startup to get funding, operate with minimal government friction, (taxes and regulation), as well as operate in a standardized economic environment, are very highly correlated with the long term growth of that economy and a rising standard of living.

The Japanese government needs to cut taxes. Cutting taxes puts more money into the hands of people. It doesn’t matter if they spend that money, put it in a bank, invest it in equities or give it to charity, the money kept by the people will go miles further, per dollar, than it ever could being squandered by government. Allowing a little deflation wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Instead of taxing and spending, government could give back by allowing deflation, in an entrepreneurial society deflation allows innovators to do more with less. Deflation is like a pay hike to everyone in society. The only one who is harmed by deflation is an overspending government. The Japanese government should appoint a panel to find outdated and redundant regulations and laws that can be stricken from the books. Cull the regulations and laws as often as possible and as hard as politically feasible. These pro free market innovations would unleash terrific creative power, leading to well distributed societal wealth, than unlimited government spending on fifty thousand dollar hammers and solid gold heated toilet seats.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

Creative Destruction, Say’s Law and the Pseudo Science of Economics

Monday, October 20th, 2014

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, supply really does drive demand in the creative phase of the creative destruction cycle, and arguments to the contrary are most often based on observation bias. The theory that supply drives demand is Say’s law, but I am changing it a bit. Keynesian economic theory is that demand drives supply which is the opposite of Say’s law. These two theories have been at odds since John Maynard Keynes developed his theory. Keynes theory falls short of the mark, as does Say’s law, but if we combine Schumpeter’s theory with that of Say, the amalgam provides us with a better snapshot of the workings of a healthy economy. This is because an economy is a complex system, and complex systems are by their nature messy, making it impossible to quantify and measure the inputs to any real degree of reliability, therefore economics are a pseudo science or in other words, an art. This is important because our lives are better when we live in an expanding economy with a rising standard of living.

Economics is not a real science in the strictest of terms. The theories cannot be independently verified because the fundamentals cannot be effectively measured. Moreover economics, like any of the humanist “sciences,” are subject to the personal bigotries of the “scientist.” These pseudo sciences have built in traps for those who would promote their theories over those of another. One of those traps is observation bias. In the hard sciences like physics the parameters can be set, measured and quantified. The bias of the observer is irrelevant, a stone dropped accelerates at nine point eight meters per second squared, no matter who is observing it, but since humanistic sciences, economics and climate “science” are not hard sciences based on directly observable phenomenon, but are instead complex systems that have far too many inputs and interactions, so observing and measuring any number of inputs and interactions, many of which are not directly observable at all let alone measurable, gives very little insight into the emergent phenomenon that is different in kind than the sum of the inputs… a key distinction of a complex system.

Since economics is the science/art of a complex system, theories cannot be measured by looking at any of the inputs, but instead must be measured from the emergent phenomenon that rises from the complex system itself. In other words, we cannot reason from the bottom up, like the hard sciences, we have to reason from the top down, and even then, we find observation bias creeping in. In the aggregate demand aggregate supply model, the assumption is that if there is no demand for products and services, any supply is over supply, and therefore demand drives supply. In Say’s law, that supply drives demand, the foundation is that if there is a supply of something there will be demand, even if the demand is at a price point that is lower than the manufacturing cost. In Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction, the theory rests on the concept that new ideas draw in the means of production until the idea is fully implemented, then the outmoded ideas are destroyed.

All those theories start at some sub function of the complex system, demand, supply, new ideas, etc… then reason from the sub function or input, to the emergent phenomenon. As I have explained this is not an efficient way to reason about complex systems. If we instead look at the desired results, the emergent phenomenon we seek in an economic system, IE. a “healthy economy,” and then reason down, we are more likely to find workable theories that are less subject to observation bias… as long as the term “Healthy economy” is agreed to at the outset. Let’s set the parameters for a “healthy economy,” to be full employment, an expanding economy and a rising standard of living. Notice I didn’t make one of the parameters no recessions. This is because recession’s are clearly a facet of a healthy economy as we have described. We can deduce this by the fact that all complex systems grow in fits and starts, animals and plants grow rapidly, slow, then grow rapidly again, until they have reached maturity. Weather patterns change constantly from rain to clear and back to rain, all complex systems wax and wane and therefore reasoning from the top down, we can reasonably conclude recession is a function of a healthy economy, just as sleep is a function of a healthy body.

The emergent phenomenon of a healthy economy, requires a high utilization of workers, increasing demand for products and services, innovations that improve the standard of living and rising wages relative to the cost of living. From this we can see that driving demand by whatever means has no effect on innovation, it has no direct correlation to wages and only a tangential correlation to demand for labor. Creative destruction correlates well with innovation and tangentially with demand for labor but falls short of the mark when it comes to wages and demand. Say’s law that supply drives demand also falls short. If we combine them however we can get closer to describing conditions required for the emergent phenomenon we are calling a healthy economy.

Justus Moser lamented the fact that the market system invents new products then creates a demand for them. Before there were home computers there was no demand for them, in fact many of the economic brianiacs of the day argued there would never be a need for a home computer, because who needs all that number crunching power? Once the PC came out however, many new uses, from word processing and spreadsheets to computer games followed, giving the home computer uses that exceeded anyone’s initial concept of what a home computer would do. These innovations drove demand for the products they created and for their ancillary products as well. The same holds true for new innovations that have not even been thought of yet.

Aggregate supply aggregate demand, being easy to quantify is therefore scientific appearing, it is an oversimplification however that leads to many negative policies that hinder an economy from being healthy. Moreover it is especially subject to observation bias. This model is easy to understand. The most pernicious effect of this theory is that it’s inherent observation bias gives rise to bad policies. Policies that encourage politicians to deficit spend and redistribute other people’s money. It argues all demand is equal. If that was so then full aggregate demand of anything would give rise to a healthy economy. This is reasoning from the bottom up however. For example, if the only demand in an economy was for cocaine and all the productive resources was put to that end, would that lead to a healthy economy? Of course not, a truly sick economy would arise from such demand, even though aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply, proving the weakness of the aggregate demand aggregate supply model.

If however, we combine Say’s law with Schumpeter’s creative destruction, reasoning from the top down, we find we have a better description of what is needed to have a healthy economy, ergo… sufficient demand for supply, innovation that betters people’s lives, increasing demand for labor and a rise in real wages driven by the demand for more complex labor. Put simply the theory simply works. Reasoning further down, we can observe the conditions that give rise to creation and the supply produced driving demand. The lower we descend however the more observation bias is likely to come into play. Creation requires as a prerequisite, ease of starting a business, else there can be no creation. This presupposes access to the capital necessary to start a business along with the tax and regulatory environment conducive of it. If these conditions are not met, lacking the supply that creation provides, demand falls short, and an economy fails to meet our definition of healthy. That is why I say, creative destruction must be wedded with Say’s law, to better explain the factors that give rise to the emergent phenomenon of a healthy or sick economy, which then points us to policy directives that will result in a healthy economy.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

The Poison of Propaganda

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Dear Friends,

 

It seems to me, knowing propaganda is not the same thing as having knowledge. People who have been well indoctrinated in propaganda will stand on a rooftop and spout their pseudo knowledge with the certainty of a prophet. Most often those who think they know, will shout down someone who actually knows, because there is confidence in propaganda that is not available to those who actually understand the subject at hand. This is because actual knowledge requires an open mind, reasoned thought, observable reality and the evolution of knowledge, while propaganda gives a certainty that is not possible to someone with an open mind. Knowing the difference is critical if we are to seek knowledge and not fall victim to hucksters shilling propaganda.

 

Socialists, Marxists and progressives use propaganda like a poor Italian cook uses too much garlic. You can smell it on those that imbibe it. Propaganda is always offered as the end all truth. Anyone who has the audacity to offer a different opinion is vilified as promoting ignorance or as ignorant themselves. The propagandist will attack the person with an opposing view instead of addressing the arguments. That is because propaganda cannot stand up to open minded review while actual knowledge can.

 

The Enlightenment was about changing the source of knowledge from authority to observable reality. The propagandist eschews open debate for authority. You hear propagandists constantly referencing authority while claiming to be the rightful heirs of the Enlightenment. College professors are of this ilk. They stand in front of ignorant youths, (theoretically, that is why they are in college in the first place, to grow out of their ignorance), and teach them propaganda couched as truth, based totally upon the authority of the professor. This has become such a problem that colleges and universities have transformed into indoctrination centers for the new class progressive world view, real knowledge cannot be allowed, because it would alter the narrative that socialism is good and markets are bad, against all observations of history.

 

Global warming is the epitome of propagandist reasoning. The IPCC has been caught lying over and over, none of their predictions have come to pass and there is a ton of information available that counters their propaganda, but they rely on the false appeal to authority, “the science is settled.” Science is never settled, once the leading minds of the day were convinced light traveled through the “ether.” Today we know it doesn’t, because it is acts both a wave and a particle, which travels the same speed in any direction, all of which destroys the argument light travels through an “ether.” Real science is based on observation proving theory, in the global warming alarmist circles however, whenever observation goes against theory, it is observation that must be thrown out. We must instead rely on the self interested authority of the alarmists.

 

The youth are the most susceptible to propaganda. They haven’t the knowledge base or life experience to put into perspective the sweet lies that the propagandist feeds them. Since every one of us would rather believe a delectable lie rather than a bitter truth, propaganda that is appealing is well received by ignorant youths, as well as lazy minded adults. If you tell an old man that communism has never been tried, he will scoff at you and consider you an idiot propagandist, while an ignorant youth or lazy minded adult, will lap it up as though it was universal truth. In this case the poison of propaganda is sweet while the bitter truth of communism is hard to swallow.

 

By definition propaganda is false knowledge, or sophistry, that sounds reasonable but in fact is designed to trick people into making decisions that are not in their best interest. Otherwise why do it? Lacking life experience the youth are the most susceptible, but even lazy minded adults can be persuaded by propaganda, sometimes even when they know it is propaganda, because it is easier to just go along. The propagandist will make arguments based on partial truths mixed with many lies and backed by omissions. When they are caught in a lie they change the subject and their willing accomplices will vilify those who point out those lies. All showing that the propagandist despises the advances of the Enlightenment, and undermines it in the most pernicious ways, returning us to the dark ages of serfdom.

 

The bloody history of communism, socialism and progressivism shows all too well the results of mindlessly going along with propaganda. The progressive Woodrow Wilson and his eugenics movement led to the sterilization of thousands of American citizens against their wills, and provided the intellectual backstop for the Nazi eugenics based, final solution. The socialist Goebbels was the consummate propagandist, he used propaganda to put a ring in the nose of the German people, leading them to the most horrific slaughter of human beings the world has yet seen. Lenin used propaganda to enslave the Russian empire resulting in tens of millions of human beings, killed, tortured, sent to gulags and insane asylums. If we want to repeat that history, all that is required is to go along, if we wish to avoid such human suffering however, it is incumbent upon us to speak up and point out propaganda when we see it.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

John Pepin

The Fox is Now in Charge of the Hen House.

Monday, September 15th, 2014

Dear Friends,

It seems to me, putting people in charge of protecting something they despise, is not such a good idea if you want that thing to survive. A sane person wouldn’t put Hamas in charge of Israel’s defense, a rational parent wouldn’t put John Wayne Gacy in charge of his or her child’s birthday party and no one in their right mind would make Don Corleone the Attorney General. According to a news story I just read all of the appeals courts in the US are now run by a majority of Democrat appointees. This wouldn’t be bad if the democrat party had not been hijacked by outright socialists, progressives, but it has, and that means people who despise everything our Constitution stands for, are in charge of protecting it.

Control of our Constitution is the reason democrats filibustered Bush appointees. A move that at the time was unheard of. Once the progressives got their man in however they put an end to filibustering appointees. When republicans considered eliminating the filibuster it was called “the Nuclear option” by the unbiased media. When democrats pushed the nuclear button the unbiased new class media cheered them on. Now progressive democrats have filled all the vacancies Bush couldn’t along with those that have opened since Obama came to power.

Progressive philosophy is essentially the same as Marxist, the only real difference is the progressives eschew the violent revolution part of Marxist theory in favor of “progressing” us to full socialism. To achieve their end, a total state where people are the property of the state, the only thing that is off the table is outright revolution. They shun revolution, not because they are peaceful, but because they don’t believe revolution is the best way of getting there. That is why whenever a progressive is asked what is the difference between Marxism and Progressivism, the progressive laughs derisively and refuses to answer.

The difference between national socialism and progressivism/Marxism is the national versus their international nature. The Marxist/progressive believes in world communism, where everyone on the planet lives in their Utopian vision, whereas the national socialist seeks to enslave their own nation to the yoke of communism. The end of both are the same but one wants socialism for their country only and the other seeks it for the entire world. That explains why they hate each other so. They must draw from the same limited pool of people and so are in direct conflict for those potential enlistees.

In order to progress the world to communism the progressive only stops at violent revolution, not at violence. History shows that progressive will lie, cheat, destroy innocent people, undermine societal wealth, and harmony. They will do anything no matter how heinous, that progresses us to their goal. Since they are at heart atheists, and as such have no worry about eternal consequences, there is no limit to their actions. One thing stands in the way of the progressive vision of a united world under communism… the United States. More specifically, the US Constitution. That document is a stumbling block to them.

The US Constitution has provided the United States with the most long lasting republic since Rome, it has resulted in the most prosperous society the world has ever known, most of the industrial revolution’s advances are the direct result of US patent law… that is only possible under the US form of government, people still live in liberty even after over two hundred years of one government, and all of these goods are directly opposed to the progressive agenda.

Progressives learned over a century ago that they need not change the words of our Constitution to undermine it’s effectiveness, all they need do is change the meaning of the words, and it is the court system that interprets the words. Freedom of religion is now separation of church and state, shall not be infringed means limited rights, interstate commerce now means government can regulate anything you do in your own home and on your own land, but their diabolical attacks don’t end there. Progressives now seek to change the freedom of speech to freedom of government approved speech.

Both the Republican and democrat parties are controlled by progressives. The democrat party is totally in the hands of progressives and the republican party’s top echelon are uniformly progressive. That is why Tea party candidates come under the heaviest fire from republicans. The republican elite don’t believe in limited government, their rhetoric is only a means of tricking people into thinking there are two choices, when there is only one… progressive.

The judicial system is the final protector of our Constitution. Most of the heavy lifting is in the Appellate courts. They hear the majority of cases and rule on their constitutionality. Since there are no negative consequences if they actively seek to undermine our Constitution, once a progressive gets that lifetime appointment, he or she can engage in all sorts of mischief. Now that most of the judges on the appeals court are progressive democrats mixed with many progressive republican appointees, the change will come faster and faster. Yup, now that progressives are in charge of protecting Our Constitution, a constitution they despise with every fiber of their being, limited government will soon be history. World communism is the next goal.

Sincerely,

John Pepin

The New Class and Our Civilization’s Suicide

Wednesday, August 6th, 2014

 

 

Dear Friends,

 

It seems to me, the West is committing civilization suicide. Not any different than a man who throws himself off the top of a high building, shoots himself or immolate herself. Not everyone agrees we should do this, but those in the new class, the political elite, believe we will be able to fly once we are airborne, so are determined to jump… while the rest of us are doing our best to hold them back. The same debate goes through the mind of someone who is on the ledge. The signs of our impending suicide are all around us. Pick up and read any newspaper and the intention of the ruling class becomes obvious. From the US’ open borders to our lawless government, the writing is there for us all to see, if we would only look. Some, mostly members of the new class and the peasantry, (traditional allies in any communist take over), are fully on board with our destruction, while others, the middle class, working class and some in the new class, are trying as hard as we can to save us all. The trouble is, those who seek the destruction of our culture, society and economic system, are the ones who wield political power, run the media and direct our culture, while those of us who want to preserve those things may be the majority, but our political power is so diffuse it is rendered irrelevant.

 

Why would the new class and modern peasantry want to destroy the greatest wealth creation machine the world has ever known? To answer that we need to plumb the subconscious of the new class. The new class is trained and indoctrinated in our universities and colleges. The higher a professor gets in academia the more they are full blown Marxists and anarchists. That is not my contention, it is the premise of Alvin Gouldner’s book, The Future of Intellectuals and the Rise of the New Class. As a result of their political bent, they detest the west and everything the west stands for, the market system, limited government, wealth, Christianity and people of European descent, (even though most of them are wealthy, claim to be liberal and are of European descent). In short… hate and jealousy are their primary motivating emotions. So when students show up to get an education, they are instead indoctrinated by a curriculum of anti American propaganda, Marxist indoctrination and a ludicrous world view, where everything white people have done is evil and everything anyone else has done is good. If there is any one characteristic of the progressive new class’ mindset, it is their blind hatred of the west.

 

Since the new class primary motivation is righteous hatred of the west and therefore themselves, they feel justified in their intentions to rid the world of such bad things as limited government, the free market and the wealth capitalism bestows on humanity. They justify their actions like any other criminal would, by holding that other people are less than human, while they themselves stand above the hoi polloi and are “enlightened.” They reason that if only they could get rid of the evils in the world, as they see them, there would be universal peace, prosperity would sweep the world, the lion would lay with the lamb and justice would finally be born. Of course, to usher in this new era of utopia requires as a prerequisite, the total destruction of the west and all it stands for.

 

The only way to stop this madness is to take back our schools, colleges and universities, from Marxists, anarchists and all those who detest the west. Begin teaching our children and young adults the truth, that yes, the west has done bad things but there is not a people, civilization or society that has not. That what makes western culture, society and economy so noteworthy, is the good it has bestowed on the human race… prosperity to anyone willing to work and take chances, class mobility, liberty of the individual brought about by limited government, an increase in the standard of living of the average person the world has never seen before, the near eradication of ancient plagues like small pox, polio and measles, and that the United States is the only nation in the history of humanity, that has been attacked by another country, successfully defended itself conquering the attacker, and instead of annexing it, gave the people of the attacking country their liberty.

 

Like a person who so detests themselves they seek to take their own life, the new class clearly seeks civilization suicide. To that end they pervert our culture, ignore the rule of law (unless it furthers their agenda), undermine the US Constitution in every way, destroy the market system with crony capitalism, taxes and regulation, punish work and reward indigence, use the power of the government purse to break up the traditional family unit (rendering fathers irrelevant), promote anything that lowers human beings to mere beasts, wage a global war on Christianity, side with those who openly call for the genocide of the Jews, thin out the populations of whole European countries with people who also loathe the west… and change our history and traditions to suit their wants. The Georgia Guide stones show their plan more clearly than I ever could in such a short article. In their hate filled minds, they have no concept that if they succeed, humanity will enter another thousand year dark age with all that implies, but when a mind is blinded with loathing and hatred, it becomes immune to logic and reason. Like the fool who so detests himself, they douse themselves with gasoline and set themselves ablaze, immediately regretting what seemed like a good idea at the time, but once that match is lit… it is too late.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

John Pepin