Dear Friends,
It seems to me, if as Einstein said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results…” then our Central Bankers are the most insane people ever born. The pseudo science of economics will not be dissuaded by mere real world observed results, that contradict their theory, no, that would be like… giving up! You have to admire their willingness to sacrifice the standard of living of the whole world to prove a point. The United States Federal Reserve has printed trillions of dollars and used them to monetize the debt. The Bank of Japan is doing the same thing with the Yen, as now Draghi is claiming he will do as well to the Euro. Despite the trillions printed and given to government and the big banks, which in a normal economic cycle would result in runaway inflation, there is no inflation as measured by the eggheads at the Fed, ECB, or the seat of Abenomics. Their failures lead to our losses, in our wages, pensions, savings, house values, and yes, our basic standard of living.
Keynesianism is a philosophy in the arena of the Wealth of Nations. John Maynard Keynes was a British economist, who posited that since an economy is driven by the demand for it’s supply, in an economic downturn, which by his thinking was a period of time where supply outstripped demand, then government spending could gin up demand and swing an economy back into growth. Basic and simple to understand, it also had another thing going for it… it empowered government officials to tax and spend more, “for the good of the economy.” What Keynes and later demand side economists fail to understand is… not all demand is created equal. Consumer demand is always the most productive and government demand is actually often destructive of economic growth.
Japan is the poster child for Keynesianism’s failure. When Japan first went into their decades long recession the government was flush with excess reserves. The government of Japan spent huge sums in typical Keynesian fashion to stimulate the economy. It failed. They raised taxes and spent more, the economy floundered, a new party was elected into office on the promise they would spend more. They regulated and spent more, and the economy went downhill even faster. Abe was elected to print more and spend more, he raised taxes, printed more and is monetizing Japan’s huge debt… to no avail.
The southern states of Europe have had a healthy government sponsored safety net for decades. As a result, today the governments of south Europe spend huge amounts of money, keeping able bodied young people out of the workforce. The drag on the economies of those countries is like pulling a three bottom plow through a swamp. No amount of government spending would be enough, to satisfy the demand for free money from government, but the politicians have promised what they have promised. The elite could never lessen their grip on the economy through regulations and taxes, buttressed with graft and bribes. If they had the ability to print their money into hyperinflation they would do it in a nanosecond.
The US Federal Reserve has gone through six incarnations of money printing, TARP, TWIST, QE1, QE2, QE3, Monetary easing, and now ZIRP. Trillions have been printed and handed to the too big to fail banks (TBTF), and government. With all the propaganda that the US government has reigned in spending, the numbers the unbiased media use are compared to the days of trillion dollar stimulus short term measures, not long term averaged spending to GDP. Today the US government spends as much of GDP as anytime in history, 36% of GDP is government spending! That means 64% of the economy is pulling the plow while 36% ride it and claim they are helping. Yet even with all that Keynesian “stimulus” the economic outcome for Americans is getting worse by the day.
The past is littered with regimes that tried to print and spend their way out of a recession, they have all failed, spectacularly. The ones traditionally cited are Wiemar Germany and Argentina, but there are many other examples of hyperinflation triggered by monetizing the debt. Hungary was the worst ever in 1946, but Zimbabwe in 2008, and Yugoslavia in 1994, were crushing… the examples go on and on. Printing money to stimulate the economy has failed every time it has ever been tried. It empowers the political elite to take more and spend more however, and with that incentive at play, it will be given many more chances in the future as well, just in case it might work sometime.
The egghead economists answer to their failure of money printing… to raise wages, lower real unemployment and underemployment, the lack of small businesses, rising food inflation even as imported goods get cheaper, stagnated housing market, and the multi trillion dollar bond bubble the Fed’s policies have created… is to do more of the same. We are told we must let them print more and blow up more economic bubbles else we would be in for it. They have become like a typical mad scientist. Despite all the monsters they have created in the past, and the destruction those monsters wrought, there is only one way, their way, the consequences be damned because someday it will work… it just has to!
Sincerely,
John Pepin
